The West’s slow, shy departure from sanctions
GLOBAL political events of the past week have shown that sanctions may not be a slap on the wrist as Western embassies stationed in Harare have been trying to project.
In response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United States of America have deployed their most trusted tool in global policy besides war — sanctions.
Addressing the House of Commons last week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed confidence that measures against Russian businesses will be harmful.
“These trade sanctions will constrain Russia’s military-industrial and technological capabilities for years to come,” said Johnson.
His counterpart in Washington, Joe Biden, the American President, intimated how sanctions operate.
“Putin’s aggression against Ukraine will end up costing Russia dearly — economically and strategically. We will make sure of that. Putin will be a pariah on the international stage. Any nation that countenances Russia’s naked aggression against Ukraine will be stained by association,” said Biden.
He also repeated the same line that trade sanctions will affect Russia’s military-industrial and technological capabilities for years to come.
Biden’s remarks vindicate what Zimbabwe has been saying for a long time — that sanctions have a debilitating impact on growth.
This informed the thinking behind the country’s re-engagement agenda, through which Zimbabwe is actively seeking to take its place in the global family of nations.
Re-engagement efforts which were kickstarted by President Mnangagwa through former Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, the late Dr Sibusiso Moyo (SB Moyo), continue to make significant headway.
In a statement last week, the European Union removed Vice President Dr Constantino Chiwenga and Zimbabwe Defence Forces Commander General Philip Valerio Sibanda off the sanctions list.
“The EU has decided to renew its restrictive measures while lifting the already suspended restrictive measures against three individuals,” it said.
The Zimbabwe Defence Industries (ZDI), however, remains under sanctions.
Scholars believe the gradual removal of sanctions could be a sign of a maturing EU, which is moving from being the United Kingdom’s echo chamber, especially after Brexit.
Professor Obediah Dodo, who has a PhD in Conflictology and speaks on international relations matters, said Zimbabwe should interpret the latest developments as positive.
“EU’s latest stance on Zimbabwe’s sanctions is a positive development and one that was long overdue. Brexit has created this avenue for EU to think independently. EU realised the importance of Zimbabwe globally, especially on the economic front.
This is an indicator of greater developments to come,” he said.
Professor Dodo said the feud that may exist between Harare and Brussels was always destined to thaw at some point.
“No conflict exists in perpetuity; it at some point ceases naturally because of change of leadership, change in policy, erosion of relevance and even acts of God. The Zimbabwe-EU conflict had reached that point where it was bound to de-escalate. History and research shows that.”
The EU’s softened stance, he added, is going to impact on the election campaign ahead of 2023.
“Remember, EU and UK had become part of Zimbabwe’s electioneering rhetoric. Now it’s gone, the opposition has been weakened. However, Government should not sit on its laurels because they can pull a shocker from the back pocket.”
He called for a refocus of the country’s investment drive.
“This development also comes against a background where EU would want to reposition itself following Brexit. It would want to lure as many potential markets as possible. With more markets, it means more allies. Reflect this in the face of the prevailing EU/Russia/Ukraine saga. More friends, more security; more potential military defence stations,” said Professor Dodo.
EU sanctions, which were inspired by the USA’s ZDERA (Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act), appear to getting fewer with each review.
However, the US has been dragging its feet, adding more people on their list.
“From the onset, EU has had a softer heart than US. Within the EU are some of the states that had also assisted Zimbabwe during the liberation struggle in the 1970s against Britain. So these had a soft spot for Zimbabwe and understood its argument, especially around the land reform programme, which is the basis for the sanctions.”
Professor Charles Pfukwa, an academic and editor of the Bindura University of Science Education Journal for the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, said the European Union and USA could be playing good cop, bad cop with Zimbabwe.
“When dining with Western powers, one needs to dine with a long spoon. It is still the same side of the same coin. It is the divide-and-rule tactic. It is an effort by one part of the same structure to play nice, while the other remains rogue. It is an attempt to sow discontent,” said Professor Pfukwa.
He said even the few sanctions that remain still spell doom for Zimbabwe.
“Sanctions simply have to be busted. These piecemeal adjustments mean very little. The first step towards busting sanctions is through making sure that the country can produce its food . . . The country should take care of its most immediate needs without relying on anyone. Zimbabweans have to continue showing their resilience.”
Some analysts believe continued sanctions on ZDI were an attempt to weaken the country’s military defence against potential hostilities.
“The EU member states are following closely developments on the ground and we have a historical umbilical cord dating back to the liberation struggle. Remember, ED’s re-engagement drive and efforts to write past wrongs. So, the world is watching and EU is part of the world. Of course, it is difficult for them to wake up one morning and admit that they were wrong about Zimbabwe. It will take a long time, but eventually they will come to their senses,” said Dr Gwindingwe, a political analyst.
Since the advent of the Second Republic, there has been a deliberate approach to pursue new relations and strengthen existing ones.
It has been a long 20 years for Zimbabwe, as sanctions have stunted economic growth.
But there is hope Zimbabwe will soon be integrated in the global family of nations.