The curse of nearly man of politics
Losing can become a habit or even a lifestyle. Ask Kenya’s serial and prolific elections loser — Raila Odinga.
THE man, who is ironically a German-educated mechanical engineer, simply cannot discover a winning formula. Bishop Lazarus believes that even if Odinga contests with no other candidate than himself, he will still abysmally lose. Kikikiki.
Curse of Adonijah
But, for Raila Odinga, losing seems to be a congenital disease or curse; it runs in his DNA.
It all started with his father, Oginga Odinga (Mr Double O), who, however, was christened Obadiah Adonijah at birth.
The biblical story of Adonijah’s wretched political ambitions and fate is told in 1 Kings 1, which describes how the spoilt prince wanted to usurp the throne from his old and ailing father, David, who was the King of Israel.
As part of his ambitious plot to take over the throne, he even canvassed support from army commander Joab and influential priest Abiathar.
The cocky Adonijah even bought for himself horses, chariots and had recruited 50 men “to run ahead of him”.
The plot only came unstuck when King David — after being briefed about Adonijah’s ploy by his wife and Solomon’s mother Bathsheba and prophet Nathan — decided to pre-emptively anoint Solomon as his successor and ruler of Israel and Judah in line with his earlier promise.
Being a man of infinite wisdom, Solomon spared the cunning Adonijah’s life, but the latter, being a creature of unbridled ambition, kept on scheming to wrest the throne.
Ultimately, the King was left with no option but to put Adonijah to the sword.
This is the accursed name that Raila Odinga’s father was given by his parents at birth.
The older Odinga, however, later renounced his Christian name in favour of his traditional name — Oginga Odinga – but unfortunately he could not exorcise the demons that came with it.
His political life was marked by missteps, heartache and resounding failure.
You see, when Kenya got its independence in 1963, he became founding father Jomo Kenyatta’s vice president.
However, after ideological differences with Kenyatta, he formed his own party, Kenya People’s Union (KPU), in 1966.
It was banned in 1969 ostensibly for subversive activities and its founder was detained.
Upon release in 1971, Oginga re-joined Kenyatta’s KANU (Kenya African National Union), but it was never the same again.
Even after Daniel arap Moi, who ruled the East African country with an iron fist, took over the reins in 1978, Oginga’s isolation continued.
In fact, he was expelled from KANU in 1982, which later prompted him to form another party —Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (FORD) — in 1991 as a
movement to oppose Moi’s “single party democracy”.
Incidentally, political parties were also legalised in the same year.
As fate would have it, when the 1992 elections were held, Oginga, whose party had split before the polls, ignominiously came fourth in the presidential elections. Two years later, he died. Fortuitously, it was during the 1992 elections that Oginga’s son, Raila, marked his entrance into active mainstream politics after he was elected a member of National Assembly under FORD.
Earlier in 1982, when his father was expelled from KANU, Raila was imprisoned for six years after he was linked with a foiled August 1 Air Force coup.
He was released in February 1988.
Ignominious journey
After his father’s demise in 1994, he left FORD following leadership squabbles that plagued the party and joined the National Development Party (NDP), under which he contested as a presidential candidate in the 1997 elections and lost.
Like a chameleon, his allegiances quickly changed and he began supporting Moi’s KANU, which later absorbed NDP in 2002 and made Odinga secretary-general.
The ambitious politician later fell out with Daniel arap Moi when he overlooked him and openly supported Kenyatta’s son, Uhuru, to succeed him.
He subsequently broke away and formed the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) under the leadership of former vice president Mwai Kibaki.
They triumphed in elections held in December 2002, making Kibaki the first non-KANU president since Independence.
But Kibaki reportedly reneged on an earlier agreement to make Odinga the Prime Minister, and duo fell out.
The ill-fated NARC collapsed in 2006, with Odinga forming the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
In what was eerily reminiscent of our own 2008 elections, Odinga won the majority of the National Assembly seats in the December 2007 elections but ultimately lost the coveted presidency to Kibaki.
The hotly contested election escalated into egregious post-election violence which needlessly claimed 1000 lives and displaced 600 000 people.
After mediation, the two formed an uneasy GNU of sorts, with Odinga as the new Prime Minister, a position he had craved all along.
Again, in 2013, the incurably ambitious Odinga threw his hat into the ring after cobbling up another coalition of opposition political parties to form the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD).
He faced off with Uhuru Kenyatta — Moi’s anointee — who was now fronting the Jubilee Party.
The curse prevailed as Odinga lost,
again.
Undeterred, he formed yet another coalition, NASA (National Super Alliance), before the August 2017 elections, but he lost to Kenyatta, again.
Although he succeeded in annulling the result through the Supreme Court, he didn’t participate in the re-run.
A year later, in 2018, he had hopped into bed with Kenyatta, who he later formed an alliance with — the Azimio la Umoja — which lost the just-ended elections to William Ruto.
For those who might have been lost in this storied history of the Odinga’s political odyssey, Bishop Lazarus will summarise it for you.
All in all, the Odinga dynasty failed to capture Kenya’s presidency six times, with Raila accounting for five failed attempts — 1997, 2002, 2013, 2017 and 2022. Kikikiki.
It doesn’t get as hopeless as this. Essentially, the guy has lost elections to four different candidates — Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto — and all he seems to do well is engineer and cobble up political parties of every shape and hue, from National Development Party (NDP), the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), NASA (National Super Alliance), and the latest Azimio la Umoja.
Although he has signalled he will contest the outcome, Raila’s battle-weary, fatigued, disillusioned and punch-drunk supporters are vowing never to vote for the chap, even in the unlikely event that a re-run is called. Kikikiki.
The rats are now jumping the sinking ship.
Lust for power
Apparently, Bishop Lazi sees the same lust for power, myopia and political ineptitude in Nelson Chamisa.
It was the same unbridled quest for power that saw him usurp the MDC leadership in February 2018, even as Morgan Tsvangirai’s remains lay cold in the morgue.
And it is the same unbridled quest for power that saw him prematurely declaring himself winner of the 2018 elections, culminating in the gratuitous violence that led to the regrettable loss of life and destruction of property on August 1.
Last week, the Bishop had to caution the young, excitable politician after he prematurely began a victory lap to celebrate his “friend” Odinga’s purported triumph, even before Kenya’s electoral body had tallied the votes.
It’s breath-taking naiveté and immaturity.
It betrays an alarming level of desperation in trying to psyche up and energise his political base by referencing successful
opposition political parties closer to home.
This is why he animatedly celebrated elections in Malawi and neighbouring Zambia, intimating winds of political change were blowing in the region and headed towards Zimbabwe.
They hope this will carry them through 2023.
But politics is not feja-feja; there is an inherent art and craft to it that only the anointed can understand.
Some of us know that Chamisa’s party, Triple C, plans to leave it late to launch its structures in the misbegotten hope this will not only blindside ZANU PF, but create a groundswell of excitement in the movement that would hopefully be carried into the ballot box in 2023.
However, there is one problem: There haven’t budgeted for the inexorable internal strife from those jostling for power in the troubled movement.
Low-intensity conflicts are already apparent from directionless members of the party.
It will be brutal and nasty.
All the while, their nemesis, ZANU PF, has gone through the paces by reconstituting its DCCs (District Coordinating Committees), auditing the party’s cells, refreshing the Youth and Women’s Leagues, and will soon be convening the congress for the main wing.
Bishop told you last week that the party has already consolidated its base and is actively wooing and reeling in new voters.
Chamisa’s new-found adviser Stephen Chan could not be further from the truth when he tweeted on August 7: “Appropos (sic) of my last post, with TWO periods of the WORLD’s highest inflation, what we are looking at is ZANU PF’s formidable organisation & mobilisation . . . To confront that WITHOUT formidable organisation of your own is just asking for trouble. Finally, that’s all I said in my controversial visit to Zimbabwe.”
This is ominous.
And those whom the gods want to destroy, they first make mad.
Last week, at a rally in Masvingo, Chamisa made a bizarre statement, but one known to some of us, that he grew up at a military base.
The Bishop will not say much on this. Next time he carelessly mentions this hitherto unmentioned detail, just ask him when his father joined the military?
As a soldier, whose interests was he fighting for?
Did he fight for the Rhodesians or guerrillas? If it turns out he was fighting shoulder-to-shoulder in the trenches with Rhodesians, then can he possibly sire royal blood for Zimbabwe’s throne?
All this is key to understanding why Chamisa, just like his “friend” Odinga or his predecessor and mentor Tsvangirai, will remain the nearly man of our politics.
Bishop out!