Champions League draw probabilities
JURGEN Klopp looks set to head back to Germany with Liverpool most likely to meet Borussia Monchengladbach in Monday's Champions League last-16 draw.
A calculation of the probabilities of each pairing shows that the English trio of Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea, all of whom won their group, are statistically most likely to be heading to face Marco Rose's Gladbach side in the first knockout round.
German teams only have five potential draw options due to having two teams seeded — Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund — and two not seeded - Monchengladbach and RB Leipzig.
Worryingly for Barcelona, who were comprehensively beaten by Juventus 3-0 in Matchday Six to drop to second in the group, they are most likely to be handed a reunion with defending champions Bayern Munich.
Bayern are most likely to face either of the Spanish teams - Sevilla or Barcelona - and they would likely rub their hands together at the prospect of taking on Ronald Koeman's out-of-sorts side.
The last time the two met it was in the Champions League bubble in Lisbon to conclude the 2019-20 competition.
The quarter-final cost Quique Setien his job at Barcelona as Lionel Messi and Co were blown away in an 8-2 demolition job, a result viewed as one of the worst in the club's history.
The 16 teams that have made it through have been divided into two pots - those that finished top of their groups will be seeded and will play a team that finished second.
However, at this stage of the competition, teams from the same country and teams that have just played in the same group cannot be drawn against each other.
While this immediately reduces the possible opponents for each team, their chances of being matched to a particular team are also affected by the number of clubs from each country that have qualified and which pot they're in.
The reason the percentages are not equal is that some teams have the prospect of being drawn against five eligible teams, others have six or seven options, and so the values change. Juventus and Gladbach both have only five potential pairings and so are most likely to meet. Real Madrid only have four.
In this upcoming draw there are four German, four Spanish, three English, three Italian, one French and one Portuguese club in the draw.