Renewed impetus need in Cabo Delgado
The legendary asymmetric warfare equation has indeed proven, beyond any reasonable doubt, in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, that dealing with acts of terrorism as warfare instead of treating such as criminal acts that warrant a law enforcement approach is indeed a step in the wrong direction. This column posited, in an article titled Military centric approach wont work in Cabo Delgado dated April 9 2021 when it was announced that a Sadc Troika meeting aimed at coming up with solutions "to end acts of terrorism in Mozambique" was being convened. Then, just like now, as the year opens with another Sadc engagement on the issue in Malawi, the writer restates and affirms the rationale that the military-centric approach presently being pursued by Sadc and Rwanda in Mozambique, besides its propaganda value, remains just but a damp squib insofar as dealing with acts of terror is concerned.
A regurgitation of the asymmetric warfare equation will help give scope and context as to really what was meant then and now by the writer.
Asymmetric warfare = Cultural asymmetry +Asymmetric cost + Asymmetric operations+ A symmetric threats.
The revelations in November 2021 that instead of thawing, acts of terror are actually spreading to Niasa with IS-linked extremists kidnapping people and attacking villages whilst the Mozambican President was forced to relieve his Defence minister of his duties exemplifies my nascent belief in the efficacy and supremacy of applying the asymmetric warfare equation to confront current threats especially within Sadc.
The latest round of talks to be held in Malawi by regional leaders are going to lead to more solidarity speeches, bombastic language and good diplomacy but essentially the situation will remain dire on the ground in Cabo Delgado. I vividly made a case for the adoption of the Indonesian Model of Counter terrorism which blends elements of law enforcement with institutional capacity building, focusing more on counter radicalisation and deradicalisation endeavours as opposed to the counter terrorist approach. There is a universe of difference between counter terrorism and counter terrorist. Killing terrorists does not eradicate terrorism. Sadc, in its current scope, design and format is inherently incapacitated in and to addressing these 4th Generation warfare kind of engagements. Definitely, the cancer presently reported as being spreading in Cabo Delgado, which reality runs parallel to bellicose declarations by Kagame that "terrorists have been defeated”, is actually being amplified by numerous factors well captured by the Asymmetric Warfare Equation. Of course, it is not debatable that the Mozambican government needs to be capacitated to and in facing this dire threat but the warfare approach being embarked upon at this juncture will not lead to a thawing of hostilities but actually an amplification and escalation of the later.
New institutions must be conceived by Sadc member states; which institutions can have the abilities to deter and impede asymmetric threats before they escalate. Acts of violent extremism in South Africa, drug abuse and gun violence in Zimbabwe and political instability in Malawi proves that the region is yet to comprehend how to handle modern day threats. I am always impressed by how Nato, a collective defense institution, handles these threats, especially after the Talinn Cyber Attacks wherein the Talinn Manual was conceived. Such pragmatism is what is needed. Our military doctrines do not have the wherewithal to eradicate acts of radicalisation and violent extremism. Returning foreign terrorist fighters from war ravaged territories of Syria and Iraq, with enough battlefield experience and expertise in recruiting cadres will simply make the current chaos in Mozambique unbearable in the mid-long term.
Porous borders and extreme levels of corruption coupled by orgies of disputed elections provides enough fodder for these radical gangs to infiltrate both areas of operation and interest within Sadc with debilitating consequences.
Recent bombings in Uganda must not be taken in isolation but instead must be taken as a warning and hint that not a single state within the Sub Saharan African region is safe from these corrosive asymmetric attacks The Mozambican conundrum must be confronted with renewed impetus, gusto and a sense of urgency. The region can and will indeed be a haven of terror attacks especially post the change in thrust of the US foreign policy, both Defence and National Security from the fight against global terrorism as was aspired to by the Bush Doctrine to a preeminent focus on Russia and China and their hybrid warfare schemes.Sadc must indeed wake from the slumber. Meetings of solidarity and affirmations of acts being valiantly been done by the gallant troops on the ground do not neutralise the need to focus on counter-radicalisation and de-radicalisation initiative.