New World Order emerging from Ukraine-Russia War
THE Great Chinese military theorist, Sun Tzu, was definitely not living in Yoyoland when he quipped that “the supreme art of war is to win without fighting”.
The prominent Prussian military theorist, Carl Von Clausewitz added by insinuating that “war is an extension of politics by other means”.
Martin Van Creveld, a modern day military analyst, blends the two perspectives by these respected historical theorists by highlighting the reality that warfare is no longer linear and is now being fought on/along five key realms, which are land, air, space, sea and the cyber realm.
These theorists enlighten us to the nascent observation that humanity or rather animals within the animal kingdom are in a constant state of competition where survival of the fittest is the order of the day.
To be able to survive, one has to be in a position to adapt, be adept to the demands of the ever-evolving threat matrix and aligned with comrades who are able to stand, cheek by jowl, with each other regardless of the odds.
After all, the current world order is a byproduct of polarity, a result of cataclysmic events that occurred, prominently in the 20th century, specifically both the 1st and 2nd World Wars.
These attrition-based wars were fought along the realms of ensuring that the enemy capitulates to the full might of his opponent and this was noted with the horrific nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to the emergence of the doctrine of deterrence as given traction by the theory of “mutually assured destruction”.
This theory essentially posits that all nuclear-carrying states have what is known as “second strike capability” which makes it logically impossible for hot warfare to emerge between nuclear-carrying protagonists.
In short, using this rationale, there is no way the US and its allies will engage in conventional warfare against Russia and other nuclear-carrying behemoths such as China.
But then knowing humanity, wars have to be waged. How then are these guys waging war against each other? The answer to this radical question is clear — hybrid warfare.
In short, hybrid warfare is a fusion of conventional and unconventional instruments of power with the sole objective being to achieve subversion. These instruments of power are deployed in a synchronised manner with the objective being to exploit vulnerabilities while achieving synergistic effects.
The primary objective of waging hybrid warfare, outside of course of the efficacy of plausible deniability, in instances where conventional warfare is not resorted to, being to inflict damage to a belligerent state in an optimal manner.
An aggressor waging hybrid warfare against a nation state targets key instruments of national power, namely Diplomacy, Military, Economy and Information (DIME).
In this VUCA environment (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous), the objective of the aggressor is to ensure the subjugation of the enemy is total whilst guaranteeing survivability.
So what is happening between Nato (US) and Russia?
These ideological protagonists have been waging hybrid warfare against each other since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The Russians have been known to be deploying hybrid warfare aggressively against former Soviet Republics, primarily Georgia, Estonia and Ukraine.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine commenced in 2014 after the Euromaidan protests that saw the removal of pro-Russia president, Yanukovich who fled, on February 21, 2014 to Moscow.
Immediately after the collapse of his government, pro-Russian separatists took over territory in the now infamous Donbass region whilst the famous "little green men", a euphemism for the Wagner Group/ Russian Army, annexed Crimea. Annexation of territory is one crucial attribute and characteristic of hybrid warfare.
Strife emerged in Ukraine. Russia remained focused on ensuring that the ends of the Bucharest 2008 Agreement that sought to recognise Georgia and Ukraine as Nato members were not recognised.
Zelenskyy, a comedian with no political experience was elected as President of Ukraine. Initially, he sought to have good relations with Russia but made a somersault and decided to toe a pro-Nato line.
This drive saw the emergence of current hostilities with the Russians deciding to go for the jugular through launching an invasion of Ukraine, with the endgame being to subvert the will of the Ukrainian people via a change in government.
This objective is yet to be met but the Russian strategy which resonates around siege warfare is clear as to how the Russians aim at achieving that objective — strangulation and decapitation measures achieved through encirclement thrust.
Ignore all the media hype about "Russia losing etc". Sieges do not occur overnight.
Amidst all this, the Americans and their allies have decided to escalate hybrid warfare against Russia in an effort to stop Putin from taking Ukraine back to the Bronze Age.
This is being done through a cocktail of measures, chief among them, propaganda, fake news, hoaxes, information warfare, political warfare and economic warfare.
The aim is, at the minimum, aimed at winning the proverbial "hearts and minds" of the Russian people and the world at large, make the incursion into Ukraine unpopular and force the Kremlin to withdraw troops.
At best, the objective is aimed at achieving regime change in Moscow!
The boomerang effects of the measures being taken by the West at this point in time ought to be properly contextualised. For instance, US President Joe Biden just announced that the US will not be importing Russian gas in an effort to cripple what he referred to as the "artery" of the Russian economy.
Data indicates that the US was importing less than 5% of gas from Russia. However, Europe, which imports over 40% of its energy requirements from Russia cannot afford to be as dramatic as the Americans.
On the other hand, the Russians countered by banning commodity exports at least until December 31, 2022. The global economy will definitely feel the impact of this ban for Russia is a supplier of numerous commodities needed to make the global economy function, chief amongst them being components for semiconductors, wheat, rare earths, uranium and others.
This topsy-turvy scenario is reminiscent of how the world was at the onset of World War 1. We are probably on the throes of the demise of the liberal world order and the birth of a New World Order.
The post Covid-19 world order is going to be significantly different to what the world was prior to March 12, 2020 when the WHO Director General declared Covid-19 to be a global pandemic.
Amidst all this, North Korea just launched its 11 missile of the year whilst some construction activity at one of the sites used for nuclear tests in 2017 is being observed.
Within the same realm, Iran announced it has launched a second satellite into orbit and the Iran Nuclear deal, as was highlighted by the hawkish Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, is on the brink of collapse. Sanctions against Russia will not scuttle trade relations between Russia and Iran.
Sapien is trade and security analyst