Russian-Ukraine conflict: The impact of airspace closures

AIRSPACE is a crucial part of any country’s infrastructure and many states have made substantial investments in aviation infrastructure.

It must be maintained and enhanced to provide more choices and value for consumers, through the capacity for airlines to add new flights, reduce flight delays and enhance global connections that can help boost a country’s economy, while continuing to improve safety standards.

Demand for air travel had grown strongly in recent decades prior to Covid-19 pandemic, and as we move forward post the pandemic, growth in demand for air travel will increase and put pressure on a country’s airspace.

The impact to airlines from airspace closure can be as benign as a three-hour extension on an arrival pattern, or as catastrophic as a shoot down from a surface-to-air missile, as the tragic loss of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over the Ukraine in July 2014 demonstrates.

Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine has triggered multitude of overflight bans that have taken international aviation back to the days of Cold War travel.

The negative effects of the airspace closures over Russia and Ukraine have been felt by Asian, European, Russian and North American Airlines.

Air transport between Europe and North Asian destinations like Japan, Korea and China have been impacted with journey times increasing by as much as three hours due to reciprocal air space bans that prohibit European carriers from operating over Siberia and Russia airlines from flying to Europe.

For airlines in Europe flying to Asia while avoiding Russia’s airspace, means aircraft covering far more distance. Longer flight times mean more fuel consumption which in turn result in higher operating costs for airlines.

Lufthansa (LH) CEO highlighted that “some long-haul planes are now up to 15 hours in the air to reach countries like China, Japan and South Korea. From Frankfurt it will now take LH about 12 to 13 hours to reach Tokyo, adding about two hours of extra flight time”.

It is, however, worth noting that in some cases higher fuel costs would be partly offset by ceased royalties to Russia for overflights and some passenger flights to Asia are seen as worthwhile in the face of increased demand on cargo capacity.

Closure of the airspace has also affected global supply chains with airlines responsible for moving around 20% of the world’s cargo affected by the bans.

Heavy-lift aircraft capability was also severely impacted after the outbreak of the Russian–Ukraine conflict, when the Russian army destroyed the Antononov Airline’s AN-225 aircraft owned by a Ukrainian cargo company.

The Antonov aircraft is the largest aircraft in the world and the only aircraft that features six turbofan engines.

The destruction of the Antononov aircraft will in the short term make oversized project cargo shipping much more challenging.

Some airlines have taken the decision to cancel schedules and equally other airlines such as Emirates and Turkish Airlines have seen opportunity to increase revenue by providing additional capacity to key markets and providing alternative routings for consumers wanting to travel.

In planning for alternative flight routes, airlines consider a wide range of factors that include fuel consumption data, navigational fees used to estimate the cost of the flight, crew resources, etc.

The value that consumers place on aviation reflects its convenience, price, and safety. Therefore, aviation infrastructure policies for countries should perhaps start focussing on the Single European Sky initiative with friendly nations that seek to maintain a balance between airspace sovereignty and airspace functionality, through the so-called functional airspace blocks (FABs).

However, for such an initiative to work it needs a lot of political support through collaborative Pan-European partnerships to optimise civil and military airspace a reduction in the proliferation of Air Traffic Control (ATC) facilities and reduced costs.

Airspace constraints come in a variety of forms, both manmade and physical and what is clear is that the Russian–Ukraine crisis has resulted in operational inefficiencies that have eroded the economic vitality of airlines.

Developing strategies for mitigating their impact, and anticipating future airspace closures, are critical for the efficient and safe operation of any airline.

Mambara has years of experience working in the airlines/aviation industry and is currently the country manager (UK and Ireland) for Royal Brunei Airlines. He currently sits on the Board of Airline Representatives in the UK, University of West London Alumni board and committee member of the UK Foreign Airline Association.