Trump leads in 5 key states as young and nonwhite voters express discontent with Biden
Trump leads President Joe Biden in five key battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the Israel-Hamas war among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel Biden’s Democratic coalition.
The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-tohead matchup against Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona,
Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.
The race was closer among likely voters. Trump led in five states as well, but Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win reelection, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.
The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and independDonald ent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10% of the vote across the six states and drew about equally from both major-party candidates.
The findings are mostly unchanged since the last series of Times/Siena polls in battleground states in November. Since then, the stock market has gained 25%, Trump’s criminal trial in New York has started, and the Biden campaign has unleashed tens of millions of dollars in advertisements across the battleground states.
The polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Biden, hurt Trump or quelled the electorate’s discontent. Instead, the surveys show that the cost of living, immigration, the war in the Gaza Strip and a desire for change continue to be a drag on the president’s standing. While Biden benefited from a burst of momentum in the wake of his State of the Union address in March, he continues to trail in the average of national and battleground state polls.
The findings reveal widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life. A majority of voters still desire the return to normalcy promised by Biden in the last campaign, but voters in battleground states remain particularly anxious, unsettled and itching for change. Nearly 70% of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.
Only a sliver of Biden’s supporters — just 13% — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.
The sense that Biden would do little to improve the nation’s fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency. The Times/Siena polls found that the three groups wanted fundamental changes to American society, not just a return to normalcy, and few believed that Biden would make even minor changes that would be good for the country.
Trump and Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Biden more than 60% of their vote in 2020. Trump also wins more than 20% of Black voters — a tally that would be the highest level of Black support for any Republican presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The polls suggest that Trump’s strength among young and nonwhite voters has at least temporarily upended the electoral map, with Trump surging to a significant lead in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — relatively diverse Sun Belt states where Black and Hispanic voters propelled Biden to signature victories in the 2020 election.
Biden, though, remains within striking distance. He has maintained most of his support among older and white voters, who are much less likely to demand fundamental changes to the system and far likelier to say that democracy is the most important issue for their vote. As a result, Biden is more competitive in the three relatively white Northern swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters — and a significant drag on Biden’s prospects. More than half of voters still believe that the economy is “poor,” down merely one percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to interest rate increases and significant stock market gains.
Nearly 40% of Trump’s supporters said that the economy or the cost of living was the most important issue in the election.