China’s Prospective Economic Trends
AGAINST the backdrop of an intricate global economic climate, China faces mounting pressure from a downward economy. GDP growth fell to 6.9 percent year- on- year in 2015, a historic low. The beginning of 2016 witnessed lackluster performances in both stock and currency markets, and a breadth of fallen trade even larger than last year, sparking global concern about the state of the Chinese economy.
On March 2, Moody’s adjusted China’s government credit outlook from stable to negative. However, the market responded calmly; the offshore RMB ex- change rate was stable and domestic bond and stock markets were unaffected.
The year 2016 marks the initiation of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) for Economic and Social Development. A group of distinguished experts and scholars gave their points of view on the questions: In which direction is the Chinese economy headed? Can the macro economy defend the bottomline? And can China overcome difficulties to achieve the five-year plan targets? Their comments are summarized below.
Hard Landing?
The year 2016 marks the start of the decisive phase of completing construction of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and also of a critical stage in advancing structural reform.
On a global scale, uncertainties and unstable factors in China’s external environment affected it to an extent that cannot be underestimated: the world’s economy is undergoing a profound adjustment and a sluggish recovery, with floundering international trade, fluctuations in financial and commodity markets, and elevated geopolitical risks.
From the domestic perspective, accumulative problems and risks have surfaced, apparent in a lower growth rate, the travail of economic restructure, the switch of economic driving forces, and greater downward pressure. Concerns over the Chinese economy are constantly