Race predictions from the experts

Will Froome make it four? Can Quintana challenge after the Giro? Will a new star be born? We pick the brains of journalists and pundits for answers

NED BOULTING, TOUR DE FRANCE COMMENTATOR, ITV

“I want the Tour de France to be raced as the Giro and the Vuelta have been in recent years; ambitiously, unpredictably, full of questionable form and desperate motivation from a range of contenders. I want a race in which Chris Froome’s rivals don’t consider themselves beaten before they start, I’m looking at you Nairo Quintana... The Colombian showed at the Vuelta last year that he can beat Froome and Sky, and needs to take that self-belief forward.

“The interest might lie elsewhere: Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe, Steve Cummings, if he mends in time. And there’ll be a few debuts, I would imagine, by the next generation of fast men – Fernando Gaviria and Caleb Ewan. Mark Cavendish, should he recover from the Epstein-Barr virus, will once again face ever-stiffer competition. That means he’ll probably go on and beat Eddy Merckx’s record by winning on the Champs-Élysées!”

SADHBH O’SHEA, JOURNALIST, CYCLINGNEWS.COM

“On past performances it would be remiss not to name Chris Froome as the overwhelming favourite. That said, anything can happen in cycling so another Froome victory is far from a foregone conclusion. We’ve seen in the Classics this season that it is possible to upset the strongest riders if you’re prepared to take risks, and hopefully this carries over into the Tour de France. Alberto Contador has never been backward about going forward and we can expect to see him try time and again to shake the Team Sky tree. Movistar will surely try, as they have in the past, but it remains to be seen how Quintana comes out of the Giro d’Italia.”

DANIEL FRIEBE, CYCLING JOURNALIST AND AUTHOR OF MOUNTAINHIGH

“An unusually meagre ration of time trials probably won’t stop Froome from making it four Tour wins, so we’ll find ourselves wondering when, how and at whose hands the Sky rider’s dynasty will end. The candidates are Quintana and Romain Bardet, both born in 1990, although this year’s race will test the credentials of younger riders perhaps more likely to reign longer into the postFroome era. Look for Simon Yates and Bob Jungels, if selected by Quick-Step, to both make their cases. Yates will be the strong favourite for the white jersey. With an eye on future Tours - and stars thereof - I expect Caleb Ewan to confirm his arrival in the sprint jet set.”

SAM DANSIE, DEPUTY EDITOR, PROCYCLING

“No predictions from me – they’re always miles out – just hopes. I hope the battle for the yellow jersey is a close fought one. There hasn’t been a ripsnorter that’s gone to the wire since 2011. On the same lines, I hope the mountains, which feel punchier this year, recover their ability to shape the race. For a few years now, the Alps and Pyrenees have been, an admittedly stunning, setting to a procession to the key time trials. Whoever wins – and it’ll be either Froome, Quintana or Porte – already has a great story to tell.

“I also hope Mark Cavendish recovers from his spring bout of Epstein-Barr virus and continues his pursuit of Eddy Merckx’s record of 34 stage wins. With 30 under his belt, Cav’s in striking distance. Records need to be broken to prevent them fossilising and this is a massive one. I also hope Peter Sagan turns up as his usual outrageous and refreshing self.”

ROB HATCH, TOUR DE FRANCE COMMENTATOR, EUROSPORT

“This Tour begins with a time trial, so my first candidates for yellow are Stefan Küng and Primož Roglic. Küng comes from the track, and with a frustrating 12 months behind him, he’ll be aiming for the yellow jersey. Former ski-jumper Roglic is in the same position, and if he can continue his early-season form, his own Tour debut could prove exciting.

“For a GC surprise or mountain stage win, look out for Miguel Ángel López. Much will depend on how he recovers from his off-season crash, fracturing his tibia during a training ride, but there’s no denying his talent. Some Colombian coaches say he could be better than Quintana. Stage 9 to Chambéry will be important for AG2R La Mondiale. It’s their base and home of their youth development centre. Watch out for Romain Bardet on Mont du Chat, the toughest climb Eddy Merckx said he faced in his career.”

ALASDAIR FOTHERINGHAM, CYCLING JOURNALIST AND AUTHOR OF THE END OF THE ROAD

“July’s million dollar question is, yet again, what can throw Team Sky off its stride in the Tour? The answer, I feel, is neither Quintana, who’ll be tired after the Giro, or the ridiculously over-hyped Romain Bardet. It’ll be the unpredictable elements – the crashes, the new riders, the weather. I’d hope new or newish kids on the Tour block like Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves and, if he races, Fabio Aru, throw caution to the wind and don’t just race for the considerable, but boring, honour of standing next to Froome in Paris. I also hope Contador tears up the GC script the way he does best. If none of that happens, I’ll go back to watching old Giro d’Italia videos…”