TALES OF THE UNEXPECTED
It’s 2019. We’ve just left the first European round of the MotoGP season. Marc Marquez has just taken the top step of the podium and leads the Championship. Someone asked me “Is MotoGP becoming a bit predictable?” Yeah, in one sense it’s becoming predictable – it’s becoming predictable in its unpredictability. My pre-season tips are looking predictably worse with every round (top tip: always gamble responsibly – and if I tip something, you shouldn’t). So with summer just around the corner, what weren’t we expecting this season?
We may have expected Marquez to be leading the championship, but after round four at Jerez his lead was a solitary single point. The man in second? Alex Rins. On a Suzuki. No one was tipping that. Marquez is actually looking better than I have ever seen him. Yet still only nine points separate the top four – and four different manufacturers no less. For me 2019 has strong parallels with the 2006 season. Coming into 2006 Yamaha were untouchable and Rossi was even more untouchable – arguably more than Marquez is now. We all know how 2006 panned out: a young plucky American kid called Nicky Hayden won the title on the last day of the season. Could Alex Rins be 2019’s Nicky Hayden? I’m definitely not predicting it but sport is crazy.
The class of 2019 rookies have all been impressive for different reasons. Coming into the season, most of the punters’ money was going on Moto2 World Champion Pecco Bagnaia or Spanish starlet Joan Mir. Oliveira went largely under the radar pre-season, but, on a far less competitive package than his fellow rookies in the shape of his Tech3 KTM, he has put in some stunning performances, even outperforming KTM’s big factory signing for 2019, Johann Zarco. Where Zarco has very publicly struggled with his new machinery, Oliveira has got his head down and gone about his business. This hasn’t gone unnoticed by his bosses, who announced prior to Jerez that they had activated the option in Olivera’s contract to retain him for the 2020 season. Well deserved.
Of course the biggest rookie story so far has to be that of the youngest rookie, Frenchman Fabio Quartararo. The Yamaha has always carried a reputation for being the most user-friendly machine on the grid for first-timers, however, Quartararo’s performances have been incredible and bear all the hallmarks of a future megastar. Should Marquez be worried? Maybe. He’s usually the one breaking records, but at Jerez he was the one conceding records. Taking pole position at Jerez at just 20 years and 14 days, Quartararo took Marquez’s record of being the youngest premier-class pole setter. If Marquez isn’t worried, maybe he should be; this is the boy that won two successive Spanish CEV titles and was so highly thought of that they changed the rules, thus allowing him to enter the Moto3 World Championship at the tender age of 15.
Of course, while some found it hilarious that Quartararo and Morbidelli out-qualified the factory machines, it’s definitely not the case within the Yamaha factory walls. In fact it will be music to their ears and could ultimately become Yamaha’s strongest weapon in their drive to get back to the top (something that can happen surprisingly quickly with the wind of change in your favour). With the backing of Petronas, the Yamaha satellite team are now running bona-fide factory machinery – something that never happened during the Tech3 years. This means they now have four sets of data to compare from four very different, but very much world class, riders. This, combined with a proper European test team, with a fast young test rider in the form of Jonas Folger, is precisely how you develop the best possible package. This is certainly one area where Yamaha have lost ground to their rivals in the last few years. Morbidelli and Quartararo will be focused on going as fast as possible at every opportunity (see the Jerez post-race test times!) and Rossi and Viñales will be far too smart to get drawn into a dick-swinging contest with their satellite teammates.
So no. There’s no way MotoGP is actually becoming predictable. It’s getting less predictable with every round. I can predict with absolute certainty that my colleagues in the Fast Bikes office, the Media Centre, my mates down the local and I will continue to make our predictions at every round and thoroughly enjoy every single one being proven completely wrong by our favourite gladiators on two wheels.