HERE WE GO AGAIN
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Bellarine Football League rivals Geelong Amateur and Torquay are set for another physical grand final. Ammos are shooting for their fourth straight flag.
WHO is going to benefit the most if the forecast rain dumps down on the MCG on Friday night?
One of the best things I have liked about Geelong this year has been the return of the contested beast.
For years, during the premiership reign, winning the contested ball was part of the Cats’ DNA.
It was a non-negotiable, driven by blokes such as Joel Selwood and Joel Corey, but in recent years that dominance has tapered off and, so too, has the side’s performances.
Geelong was the No.1 contested ball team in the AFL in 2007, 2008 and 2009, but slipped to 10th in 2014, 15th in 2015 and bounced back to fifth last year. This year it is fourth and continuing to improve.
It’s the type of game plan tweak under Chris Scott, coupled with the addition of Patrick Dangerfield, that has Geelong primed for the hardened battle of finals footy, especially on a night like Friday when the slippery conditions mean the ball is going to be on the deck a bit more.
Not to forget the inclusion of Selwood, whose return will give his teammates such a boost.
The question mark on the Cats has been their ability to defend the bigger, wider ground of the MCG and they have been guilty at times of getting a bit lost on the flanks and turning the ball over with shallow entries inside forward 50.
So that’s one thing they will need to be mindful of again.
All year we’ve talked about their forward line and how the dynamic mix of Daniel Rioli (179cm), Dan Butler (182cm) Jason Castagna (181cm), Shai Bolton (175cm), Sam Lloyd (180cm) and the returning Josh Caddy (186cm) at the foot of Jack Riewoldt has given the Tigers a high-pressured mix at ground level.
You have to think the conditions will suit those players with the ball being on the ground more often and hack kicks into the forward line.
Geelong’s defence is taller, so once the ball hits the ground you would suspect that would benefit the Tigers.
GEELONG’S FORWARD MIX
It probably will not be a night for high marking, so what forward set-up does Geelong roll with?
Tom Hawkins and Harry Taylor should anchor the key position posts, then you assemble the dynamos around them.
I love Wylie Buzza for the way he competes in the air, the way he crashes packs and how he has managed to get shots on goal, but Geelong runs the risk of being top-heavy if he plays and I really fear for his place in the side, purely on team balance. I don’t think you can play all three.
Look for Dangerfield to spend a bit more time forward if the Cats are breaking even in the midfield.
And then there’s Daniel Menzel and Steven Motlop. These two blokes could be among the most important on the ground — Menzel for opportunistic goals, Motlop for breaking away from the congestion.
We’ve seen the pair come into a bit of form in recent weeks after their spell on the sidelines and now is the time for them to do it when it counts.
I’m expecting big things from these two players.
THE MATCH-UPS
It’s a case of the two Ds — Dustin v Dangerfield — and the two Cs — captains Selwood v Cotchin.
Taylor gave Alex Rance a bath last time but all great players have off days and Rance is still the best key defender in the game.
I expect him to take Tom Hawkins. In a final, you need to go one-on-one early. The best defender needs to take the best forward. You can adjust after that if things aren’t going to plan.
At the other end, Tom Lonergan needs to take Riewoldt, even if Riewoldt isn’t playing deep forward. Jack is still their No.1 forward and Lonergan is the Cats’ best stopper.
It may end up that Lachie Henderson takes Riewoldt if he pushes too far up the ground, but I’d start Lonergan on him and see how it goes.
THE BYE
Geelong has changed a few things up this past week to avoid a sluggish start. The Cats’ history after a week off isn’t great — yes, they narrowly beat Hawthorn last year in the qualifying final but the Swans wiped them off the park in the preliminary final.
The bye has helped ensure Selwood got up, but it may have also stifled momentum the Cats built in the last three weeks of the season.
How much impact will it have? Time will tell.