Faultlines shift on political landscape

FOR the greater part of the past six decades, Geelong has been politically divided by the Barwon River.

The northern banks of the Barwon were forever Labor red and the southern banks were almost always Liberal blue.

Such was the case through the political generations from Gordon Scholes and Tony Street in the 1960s and ’70s to Gavin O’Connor and Stewart McArthur in the 1990s and today with Richard Marles and Sarah Henderson.

Darren Cheeseman’s two terms as Corangamite’s representative was the exception to the rule.

Yesterday, the battlelines were redrawn by the Australian Electoral Commission.

The AEC needed to shake things up because Melbourne’s population is growing at breakneck speed, particularly in the northwest where a new seat was added.

The present urban electorates have too many voters and many country seats have too few.

Corio is now set to be the main Geelong electorate with its boundary pushing south into Belmont and Highton.

Corangamite is likely to be tossed into the political dustbin.

The replacement electorate of Cox will include only bits and pieces of Geelong — Grovedale and Waurn Ponds will be included, as will some Moolap neighbourhoods.

Cox will encompass the Bellarine Peninsula, the Winchelsea and Bannockburn districts as well as the Surf Coast down to Cape Otway.

Every electorate has a natural centre of geographic gravity. It’s usually the place where the MP sets up his or her office.

Corio’s has long been central Geelong. Corangamite’s has been a tricky balance between Colac and Geelong’s southern suburbs ever since Mr McArthur’s final term in the 2000s.

If the Cox electorate becomes a reality, that centre is highly likely to be Torquay.

In that scenario, Ms Henderson and Labor rival Libby Coker would concentrate their campaigns for the ultra-marginal seat along the Surf Coast.

Geelong would therefore receive less attention from Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, given Corio would be in the bag.

The Barwon River boundary has kept Geelong as the go-to destination for party leaders at every election in living memory. The seachange from Corangamite to Cox is a tidal change that’s difficult to predict.