Few upsets proves to be surprise of season so far

THE 2018 season is on track to fizzle out into one of the most predictable years of the modern era.

After Round 13 there have been 29 upset results, equating to 26 per cent of matches. Last season there were upsets in 34 per cent of matches.

Since 1996, the only seasons with fewer predictable outcomes were affected by the introduction of Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney.

From 2011-13 the number of upsets was about 21-25 per cent as the Suns and Giants were smashed as they fielded inexperienced line-ups.

This year has also been marred by a plummet in goals and a lack of close games.

St Kilda’s barnstorming finish against Gold Coast on Saturday was only the sixth game a team has won after trailing at the final break this season.

The Saints’ comeback was the first time a team trailing at three-quarter time had won since Sydney youngster Ben Ronke (seven goals) inspired his team against Hawthorn in Round 8.

There were 15 final- quarter comebacks recorded in the first seven rounds last year.

The dip in quality has seen the AFL explore some radical rule changes for next season. According to the TAB, Essendon and Hawthorn have each played in six upset results — the most of any club.

The Bombers have won three of seven games they started underdog while the Hawks have won three of five.

North Melbourne has started as the outsider eight times this season, winning half of those matches.

Richmond’s season has gone to script with the reigning premier yet to be involved in a shock result.

St Kilda has been involved in one upset — its shock loss to the Kangas on Good Friday. The Saints, Tigers and Demons are the only three clubs yet to win a game as the outsider.

“Upsets were lower in 1996 due to Fitzroy’s last season, which saw them win only one match,” TAB’s Nick Quinn said.

“So if you were to put that to the side, you could argue that this is the most predictable season since TAB started betting on footy in 1995.”