HARD ROAD TO FINALS
DATA SAYS CATS TOP-FOUR FINISH UNLIKELY AMID CLASHES WITH TOP TEAMS
The cats can ill-afford another slip-up as they embark on another journey towards the finals. Geelong has the ninth-hardest draw on the way home, according to Champion Data, but with tough games against Sydney, Adelaide, Melbourne and Richmond in the next month, the climb (or fall) starts now.
IT IS fair to say Geelong owes Sydney one on Thursday night.
There are losses and then there are costly losses.
Had the Cats not blown a four-goal lead over Sydney in the final quarter of the Round 6 clash at GMHBA Stadium, they would be in fifth spot on the ladder, just one win from second and a game clear inside the top eight.
Now they’re fighting for their survival.
Of all the losses this year, that could haunt the most. This wasn’t just a bad day at the office like the poor performance against Essendon, this was a bad 20 minutes within a game that was safely in their keeping. A game that should never have slipped away.
So where does it leave Geelong?
The number crunchers at Champion Data believe the Cats remain an 85 per cent chance of playing finals footy this year — and a 32 per cent chance of even making the top-four (and 9 per cent to finish top two for the eternally optimistic).
Geelong has the ninthhardest draw on the way home, helped in part by four games at GMHBA Stadium, but countered by matches against current top-four sides Sydney and Richmond.
It means Thursday night is something of a defining moment for Geelong.
This was, and remains, a season of the greatest expectations.
The Cats have chosen a path of constant list rejuvenation that demands top-four finishes and premiership tilts.
With eight rounds to go, Geelong has eight wins and is clinging to a spot in the eight.
Eighth is where Geelong is at. It’s not a misrepresentation. They are just a mid-range team at the moment. They are just hanging on, as they have been in recent weeks waiting for injured players to return.
Even with their star-studded midfield, the inconsistency comes from the two-speed economy of Geelong’s teams: a brilliant top end and at times a susceptible bottom six.
The Cats would probably need to win six games on the run home to safely make the finals. Beat the Swans and the prospect of finals — even a late surge to the top-four — looks so much healthier. Lose and they’re back further in the pack ahead of a trip to Adelaide.
Last year, 12 wins got Essendon and West Coast into seventh and eighth respectively.
In 2016, North Melbourne snuck in with 12 but there was a large gap to the Western Bulldogs, which finished seventh with 15 victories.
Scott Selwood did not play against the Swans in Round 6 after being ironed out by Lindsay Thomas the week before, but he will almost certainly return on Thursday night. He should walk immediately up to Josh Kennedy, follow him into the Sydney rooms at half-time and not leave his side all night.
The Cats were beaten up around the ball by the Western Bulldogs on Friday night and Selwood should help straighten that out.
He does not have the bells and whistles of some of the other midfielders, but is one of Geelong’s most important players.
Kennedy touched up Geelong in that final quarter earlier this season after George Horlin-Smith went off with concussion.
The Cats simply need to have multiple plans to curtail his influence this time around.