WILL BOTTOM SIX COST CATS A FLAG?
RICHMOND won a premiership by extracting star performances from players ostensibly in its bottom six.
A year later, Geelong might crash out of finals consideration because of its soft underbelly.
Cats fans spent yesterday bemoaning Daniel Menzel’s late dropped mark, Wylie Buzza’s hard hands, and the poor kicking errors.
In Thursday’s loss to Adelaide, the muchscrutinised midfield won clearances 54-27, one of the great clearance beltings of the season.
The holy trinity of midfield stars were brilliant. Patrick Dangerfield was masterful, Gary Ablett (five tackles) bounced back and Joel Selwood broke a tag to post 19 second-half disposals.
Yet what every Geelong supporter now knows is that few teams in the competition have such a chasm between their top tier and bottom six.
Against Adelaide, the stats sheet made it easy to identify who the six were this week: Brandan Parfitt, Menzel, Sam Simpson, Jamaine Jones, Buzza and Jack Henry.
So the biggest question for coach Chris Scott is whether he has time before a potential finals campaign to build greater depth into his side.
The reaction after the loss is that the Cats might miss the finals for only the second time since 2006.
Certainly Scott had all but given up on the top four on Thursday night.
Yet look at the fixture and you realise that if they beat Brisbane Lions, Fremantle and Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium, they reach 12 wins.
Then they need beat only one of Melbourne (GMHBA), Richmond and Hawthorn to get to 13 wins.
But you don’t recruit Ablett and Tim Kelly to squeeze into eighth on the ladder; you do it to win a premiership.
And a club with a 3-8 finals record since its 2011 premiership surely won’t win a flag if it has to win four finals to do it.
Geelong is stuck in the middle — with a core of mature players in the flag window and 14 youngsters who have made their AFL debuts since the start of last year.
Ablett is 34, Harry Taylor 32, Selwood 30, Tom Hawkins 30 next week, and Dangerfield, Lachie Henderson, Zach Tuohy and Zac Smith all 28.
The 14 kids are Buzza, Jordan Cunico, Lachie Fogarty, Zach Guthrie, Henry, Jones, Kelly, Quinton Narkle, Mark O’Connor, James Parsons, Parfitt, Esava Ratugolea, Simpson and Tom Stewart.
It is a drafting bonanza that will set up Geelong’s future, but in the meantime what does Scott do?
Menzel has to be better for the run. Taylor will surely return in place of Buzza next week. Henderson is ready to slot in for Henry.
When Ratugolea broke a leg in Round 10, it was a hammer blow for the Cats, losing a hard-tackling, aggressive goal-a-game ruck/ forward. But he will be back by finals.
No one doubts Geelong’s best is good enough, not when it has beaten Melbourne, Port Adelaide away and Sydney away. Losses to Hawthorn (one point), Western Bulldogs (two points) and Essendon will cost the Cats a top-four spot, and put them on a hard finals road.
Richmond last year showed it is possible to beat finals hoodoos, but the Tigers didn’t leave the MCG in September.
And with Geelong’s issues, you can’t see it winning four finals to hold the cup aloft.