A warmer end to winter
WARMER nights and ideal winter days will dominate the final weeks of the season, with fewer cold fronts and less rainfall expected for Geelong and the Surf Coast throughout August.
It follows slightly below average rainfall and a similar temperature trend during July, despite a flurry of destructive cold fronts through the middle of the month and some parts of the state recording their windiest July in 20 years.
Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Jonathan Pollock said the westerly winds typical at this time of year were still trending weaker than usual, thanks to lowerthan-average pressure in the Tasman Sea.
It means we can expect more days above the August average maximum temperature of 15C but less rainfall than the 45mm average for the month.
“It’s likely August will be drier than usual for Geelong. There’s a 67 per cent chance of below average rainfall for the Geelong area and the warm weather is also likely to continue,” Mr Pollock said. “There’s also strong odds of higher-than-average temperatures; a 92 per cent chance of it being warmer than usual.
“It has been a very mild winter for much of the country and that’s likely to continue for the Geelong area.”
Mr Pollock said warming of ocean temperatures in the tropics had slowed, but there was a 50 per cent chance of an El Nino pattern forming during spring.
Lindsay Smail, owner of Geelong Weather Services, said July was drier than usual with 40mm of rain, although suburbs such as Armstrong Creek and Grovedale eclipsed their averages alongside much of the Otways.
“Contrary to quite a lot of public opinion, urban Geelong was slightly drier than average in July and warmer than average by about 0.8C,” he said. “The public opinion was probably based on the cold and very windy conditions and 18 rain days. Nevertheless, the figures show a warmer and drier month than June.” JULY SUMMARY (30-year avg: 5.8C) (30-year avg: 14C) 19.1C (July 27) 9.6C (July 11) 0.2C (July 2) MONTHLY RAINFALL (mm) 65.2 (avg: 41.4) 35.4 (avg: 47.2) 52 (avg: 47.5) 41.4 (avg: 46) 44 (avg: 40) 40.5 (avg: 44.2) 54.7 (avg: 47.5) 36 (avg: 46) 46.4 (avg: 49.2) 41.8 (avg: 38.6) 43 (avg: 49.5) (avg: 38.6) 6.6C 42 14.8C 26.8