SPECIAL REPORT: 100 DAYS UNTIL STATE ELECTION

ONE hundred days out from the November state election South Barwon and Bellarine are shaping as key battlegrounds, experts say.

Significant population growth — of more than 14,000 people across both electorates — is expected to influence the election with South Barwon placed as one of the most marginal Coalition seats.

Deakin University politics lecturer Geoff Robinson said Labor campaigners had hit the ground in Bellarine despite a 7 per cent swing in the party’s favour at the 2014 election.

“It is interesting that Labor is obviously concerned about Bellarine and are sending campaigners there,” Dr Robinson said. “Whereas there are seats on similar margins that they don’t seem to be particularly concerned about.”

Surf Coast Shire councillor Brian McKiterick — on leave of absence until December 1 from his council role — will take up the Liberal fight in Bellarine in a bid to dethrone Police Minister Lisa Neville.

Dr Robinson said population growth in the Bellarine electorate was likely to suit Labor. “Labor has a good track record of mobilising campaign staff on the ground as seen by the Red Shirts saga.”

He said the election was likely to be won and lost on voters’ perceptions of how the parties would deliver on law and order, public transport, health and education.

Meanwhile, South Barwon has emerged as an area Labor believes it may be able to snatch votes off the Liberals following the preselection of Darren Cheeseman. The party will hope to draw on Mr Cheeseman’s public profile developed during his time as the federal member for Corangamite and on the Ballarat council.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said population growth in South Barwon might be a significant factor.

“In South Barwon I have the suspicion that population growth isn’t helping the Coalition,” Mr Green said.

He said our region’s electorates had experienced significant population growth in the past four years with 8400 more voters enrolled in South Barwon than in 2014, 6100 more in Bellarine, 3500 more in Lara and 2200 more in Geelong.

“The polls are indicating a small swing against the Government, but unless the Liberal vote goes up in the seats held by Labor it’s not going to help (the Coalition’s) cause,” he said.

Challengers in the Laborheld seats of Geelong (Christine Couzens) and Lara (John Eren) are yet to emerge.

G21 chief executive Elaine Carbines said in the lead-up to

the election the group would ask both sides of politics to address disadvantage in the northern suburbs via a health and wellbeing hub, boost jobs for apprentices and establish an authority to manage the Great Ocean Road.

She said “here and now” fixes to the Geelong rail line was also a top priority.

The Coalition has made 10 election commitments across the region’s four electorates and the Andrews Government is yet to unleash its war chest.

Both major parties have committed at least $8 million to the Bellbrae Primary School.

In the Upper House, Western Victoria MP Simon Ramsay won’t recontest the election and Corangamite Shire councillor Bev McArthur is expected to take a place on the Liberal ticket.

The YouGov Galaxy poll held last week for News Corp shows Labor narrowly ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis — 51 to 49 per cent.

The election will be held on November 24, enrolment closes at 8pm on November 6.