Pollies’ clumsy tumult

THE current tumult in Canberra has seen hour-by-hour developments leading to what is expected to be a fresh spill and even potentially a new PM by the end of today.

These hourly developments — changing loyalties, the five stages of grief, factional desperation — don’t paint our national polity in a great light.

But while it can seem brutal and valueless, a lot of it is perfectly rational behaviour.

Labor has been leading in the polls for a long time and the Super Saturday by-elections revealed swings in the Sunshine State that would have been catastrophic for the Coaltion if repeated at the federal election.

It is not surprising that some federal Liberals decided to change leaders rather than, in the name of stability, doing nothing and sleepwalking to defeat.

If and when Mr Turnbull is punted, it will mean that we will never know for sure what the election result would have been with him at the helm. Turnbull allies will be able to claim that their man could have turned their fortunes around. They will claim the Dutton rebellion was selfish vandalism by a bunch of political ‘day traders’ unable to hold their nerve.

The Duttonites will argue deposing Mr Turnbull and running a true conservative against Bill Shorten and Labor was the only sensible move.

That may be true but it may also backfire terribly.

Sometimes political ‘executions’ are necessary. But this has not been a clean transaction. It is surrounded by uncertainty (no doubt fuelled by partisans). It is unclear whether Mr Dutton has candidacy issues under the Constitution.

It is also unclear whether the winner of the leadership can maintain majority support or whether a general election would need to be called.

There have been too many PM-dumpings in recent years and voters may punish the Coalition for being the latest.

Australian voters don’t like these unseemly displays.

We like to be the envy of the world — a nation that does things better than others. Not a quirky, bumbling curiosity.