SMELL THAT?
SMELL that? Smells like defeat.
Politics and politicians are on the nose, captive to ideological frameworks that bear little resemblance to how people live their fast-evolving and disrupted lives.
Robert Menzies, who epitomised Liberal values and governed with a stern and patriarchal demeanour, enjoyed the longest, unbroken run of 17 years, finally stepping down in 1966 when he fell out of step with a more progressive culture.
John Howard (11 years), Bob Hawke (8 years), Malcolm Fraser (7 years) fill the next three spots, proving that electoral stability was pretty much the norm until 2007. It’s been a downhill race since. Julia Gillard is 14th, Malcolm Turnbull 15th, Kevin Rudd 17th and Tony Abbott 20th
The electorate has lost confidence in our party system and, consequently, our parties have lost confidence in themselves.
Bill Shorten, who presents as the most cynical and opportunistic Labor leader since forever, will be Australia’s next prime minister barring a miracle.
And that’s not because Scott Morrison (pictured) wouldn’t be a good one wearing Liberal robes.
It’s because we, the voters, fear he will get rolled in a heartbeat by a scheming rump of conservative malcontents.
In today’s political clime, the person you vote for is not the person you get.
Morrison already has claimed one record on his quest for electoral stability, slipping past Frank Forde who was Prime Minister for seven days in 1945.
He’ll probably end up ranked below Tony Abbott in the mid-20s.
A common critique is that the parties have “lost their way” and don’t stand for anything.
Malcolm Turnbull is the pin-up boy for leadership by vaguery, auctioning his personal convictions rather than showing moral strength; that his values never meant anything to him.
What’s the point of having personal convictions if — when you become the most powerful person in the land — you can’t acknowledge them and deliver on them?
Menzies stood for something and, although in the end the writing was on the wall, he got his way for a long, long time.
Unfortunately, today’s parties are gazing back at their roots to find their lost souls.
I say unfortunate because their lack of connection is not only with the past, but with the future.
In the US, Donald Trump rose to power, not because he stood for anything or represents traditional conservative values.
He doesn’t really stand for anything that he can stick to.
He got his hands on the Oval Office as a disruptor, elected to “drain the swamp”.
The Democrats and Republicans had paid lip service to their backyards, preferring to stalk their own corridors of power and listen to people with fat wallets and fund-raising ticks in their eyes. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink. The ravaging of the mid-west, the unravelling of local commerce and community as collateral damage from Silicon Valley’s information-led civil war, (“live your life on a platform”), has driven a wedge between the sensible aspirations of people who want to lead peaceful and fulfilling lives and free market forces that have lost touch with reality.
The same thing is happening here in Australia.
It reared its head at the last federal election when regional voters slam dunked party politics and demanded a “fair go” from politicians mired in Canberra infighting. It happened again at the weekend in Wagga Wagga with a 29 per cent swing against the Liberal Party in the NSW byelection (now, that’s a swing!). It will happen again at the next federal election as the drought bites and people living in cities wonder what the hell is going on. Buried in The Australian Newspoll this week, which forecasts an election calamity for Morrison, are three issues that matter to voters. All are felt in marginal regional seats: energy prices (22 per cent), hospitals and aged care (21 per cent) and assistance to farmers (21 per cent). But if I was to ask a city person “how has the drought affected you?”, they would shrug their shoulders. It doesn’t affect them in the way it rips the guts out of a farming family or a shopkeeper in a town. The dismembering of communities as a direct consequence of unfettered technological disruption and the grim forecast of a blistering summer seems certain to catch the Liberal and Labor parties off guard in the bush. The bush backlash is brewing and it is not a storm in a teacup.