THE SERIOUS SIDE OF SILLY SEASON
Holes to fill, leaders to find
MITCH DUNCAN & TIM KELLY THERE are some people who call this time of year the silly season. It makes sense, too, because while six teams remain in premiership contention, the focus of the clubs already eliminated from the finals race quickly shifts towards 2019 and beyond. The point of football is to play finals and win flags, and we have some amazing games still to come, but the free agency and trade period and the national and rookie drafts routinely consume fans and commentators, as those without a team to barrack for look towards next year. For Geelong, the perennial linking of its club to free agents and former junior players in the region is testament to the fact it remains a destination club. Already, two former Geelong Falcons in Luke Dahlhaus and Gary Rohan have been linked to the Cats, while another, Jack Steven, was raised in some reports, although they were quickly knocked on the head by Chris Scott. It is an intriguing time of the year and there will be more names thrown up in the weeks ahead, but the age demographics of Geelong’s list will play a major role in determining just who it chooses to go after next. The Cats have already delisted six players, leaving them with 39 for now. There will be additional changes before and after free agency and trade week.
But of the 39 remaining, the numbers paint a picture that suggests Stephen Wells and his list management committee has some big holes to fill.
By the start of next season, Geelong will have just 10 players between the ages of 22 and 26.
Of those, Lincoln McCarthy and Jackson Thurlow are both out of contract and facing uncertain futures, Wylie Buzza’s progress has stalled, Nakia Cockatoo can’t get his body right and Tim Kelly could still request to be traded back to Western Australia for family reasons.
Even if he does stay, there is nothing to suggest that he will remain beyond next season.
It leaves only Irish rookie Mark O’Connor, Jake Kolodjashnij, Jed Bews, Jordan Cunico and Tom Stewart as the players in that age bracket who are committed and capable of staying on the park, which has come as a result of a string of misses at the draft table.
You can’t get them all right and there is no exact science to the draft, but the first round selections of Billie Smedts (pick 15, 2010), Thurlow (pick 16, 2012), and Darcy Lang (pick 16, 2013) have clearly backfired, while Geelong’s other recent first picks such as Joel Hamling (pick 32, 2011) and Ryan Gardner (pick 59, 2015) produced zero games for the club.
Brandan Parfitt (2016) and Lachie Fogarty (2017) look like excellent picks, along with others from the past two drafts, including Kelly, who was overlooked by every other club.
But the dearth in talent in certain age brackets highlights the necessity of getting it right in November because while Dahlhaus, 26, would fill a need, the Cats can’t afford to be in the same situation three or four years from now.
They need new leaders to emerge in the coming years as Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Harry Taylor and Patrick Dangerfield enter their twilight.
What the numbers also highlight is that with its current list, by Round 1, 2019, Geelong will have 18 players aged 27 or older at the club.
Eight of those — Dan Menzel, Jordan Murdoch, Sam Menegola, Cam Guthrie, George Horlin-Smith, Ryan Abbott, Mark Blicavs and Mitch Duncan — are 27, about the age where a player’s currency begins to wane.
Menzel and Horlin-Smith are free agents, Guthrie and Blicavs recently re-signed long-term extensions, Murdoch and Abbott are out-ofcontract and Menegola and Duncan are locked in until 2020.
But of the eight players listed, one stands out in terms of having the most appeal to opposition clubs if the Cats opted to be bold in order to work their way into the top 10 of this year’s draft.
They currently hold pick 11, which will drop a position when Gold Coast receives its compensation pick for Tom Lynch, and if Kelly does leave, Fremantle will have to give up a top10 pick.
But while Carlton might not be willing to accept pick six and pick 12 for its prized first selection at this year’s draft, would it entertain the offer of pick six and Duncan, with an exchange of picks later in the draft thrown in for good measure?
Would the Cats be prepared to lose a player of Duncan’s quality if it meant landing Geelong Falcons midfielder Sam Walsh?
Everything that has been written and said about Walsh indicates that wherever he goes he will be a club captain and he is someone that can step straight into AFL football.