FROM SWELTER TO TAKE SHELTER:
A LOADED atmosphere will dump heavy rain across the region from today, in a thunderstorm triple-whammy that signals an optimistic shift in the rainfall outlook for summer.
It follows Geelong topping 31.3C yesterday, with the city now exceeding its long-term November average of two 30plus days for the fourth time in the past five years.
A stuffy, cloudy start to today will set the scene for storms to break out across the region from early afternoon.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Chris Godfred said the slow-moving trough meeting humid air had heightened concerns up to 30mm could fall in brief periods under some storms.
There were fears intense bursts of rainfall could result in flash flooding. “If you’re east of a line between Swan Hill and Cape Otway, then you’re going to be at risk of storms forming during the afternoon and because the air mass is so humid, there is going to be a risk of heavy falls,” he said.
“With showers, there should be at least 5-15mm, but if you get a storm right over the top of you, you could get local falls in the area of 20-30mm.”
There will be no respite going into tomorrow as showers persist, before another dose of afternoon storms strike, with the Surf Coast the main area of concern for forecasters.
The bureau is predicting a wintry top of just 15C for Thursday, with the storms and hail likely to continue during the day.
The unstable weather could lead to Geelong exceeding its average November rainfall by the end of the week, bucking the trend of a dry 2018 and reflecting a shift in climate modelling for the coming summer.
Despite patterns such as El Nino threatening rainfall for much of the country, southeastern Australia is set for a welcome reprieve, particularly in December.
The latest outlook has a 55-60 per cent chance of above median rainfall for Geelong and much of the state, a trend set to continue through to at least February.
The Geelong region stood a 65 to 70 per cent chance of experiencing a warmer than average summer.
“There should be at least 5-15mm, but if you get a storm right over the top of you, you could get local falls in the area of 20-30mm.” BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY FORECASTER CHRIS GODFRED