DAN THE MAN, HAS BIG LEAD
DANIEL Andrews and the Labor Party are on course to be re-elected tomorrow after taking a commanding lead over the Coalition in an electioneve opinion poll.
The News Corp/YouGov Galaxy poll shows the parties neck and neck on primary support, at 40 per cent.
The Greens are on 11 per cent and other parties are tracking at 9 per cent, meaning after preferences Labor is ahead 53-47 in two partypreferred terms.
As the parties make a final pitch, both sides believe they are within striking distance in the key seats in southeast Melbourne that could decide whether a clear majority is established tomorrow night.
Yesterday saw more drama and big ideas, including: FINAL costings revealed Labor plans to borrow an extra $25.6 billion over a decade to pay for major projects; THE Greens ordered a candidate to cease campaigning after it was revealed he had been accused of rape; POLICE defended their handling of Labor's red shirts rorts probe amid claims the investigation had been set up to fail; MR Andrews promised to start the North East Link project on Monday if re-elected.
Campaigning will continue up to the close of polling at 6pm tomorrow, with key seats expected to be decided by a few hundred votes.
The parties believe the contest in several marginal electorates is still hot, notably in the southeast of Melbourne and the inner city where Labor is fighting off a Greens challenge.
Senior Labor sources say the Government may be ahead in overall polls but if a couple of seats change hands to the Liberals in the outer suburbs and seats go to the Greens in the inner city it could leave a fragile parliament.
Liberal sources believe the party’s numbers are holding up in key areas, but yesterday one said a primary vote of 40 per cent meant it was almost impossible to win government.
The poll of 1061 voters was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday, in the wake of police counter-terror raids and the state service for Sisto Mala- spina — who died after the Bourke St terror attack.
YouGov Galaxy managing director David Briggs said the ALP’s primary vote had risen two points since August and was tracking higher than at the last election. In comparison, the Coalition has slipped two points.
But Mr Briggs said the nature of the pendulum meant “a swing of this magnitude would be unlikely to have a significant impact on the number of Labor held seats”.
“The only seat requiring a swing of less than 1 per cent is (Liberal-held) Ripon and so the poll suggests this is definitely in play,” he said.
“However, swings are never uniform and this, combined with local factors, would suggest Labor is at risk of losing more seats than they can gain.”
“This could result in Labor falling short of the seats required to form a majority government.”
Mr Andrews has opened up a significant lead on Matthew Guy on the question of better premier, with 47 per cent backing the Labor leader compared with 35 per cent who nominate the Opposition Leader.