Set to be a battle royale

AS a federal election looms the contest for Corangamite, the nation’s most marginal seat, is shaping as a battle royale.

In the blue corner is Liberal Sarah Henderson who, after the Canberra spill and the state Labor election tsunami, says despite being the incumbent she is the “underdog” in the fight.

In the red corner is Labor’s Libby Coker, who unsuccessfully ran against Ms Henderson in Corangamite last federal election.

Ms Coker, a councillor with the often-ramshackle Surf Coast council, lacks the high community profile of Ms Henderson.

In a recent Addy/ReachTEL poll of 856 Corangamite voters, 81.7 per cent were able to name Ms Henderson as their federal member when given a list that included Cats legend Cameron Ling and Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young.

However political insiders say profile or quality of a local candidate can make little difference at the ballot if a big swing is on as people voting along party lines.

“I think (Ms Henderson’s) in a great degree of trouble,” Deakin University political expert Geoff Robinson said.

“When you’re looking at a substantial swing against an incumbent government, holding one of the most marginal seats puts you in a pretty perilous position.

“Although I think she’s an effective MP and has a good profile, it’s not the sort of seat you give someone a chance of holding against a swing.”

Adding to the difficulty of Ms Hen- derson’s fight is the recent boundary changes since the pair last contested the seat, with Corangamite losing traditional Liberal strongholds such as Colac and Highton.

In 2016, Ms Henderson won the seat with a 3.1 per cent margin, but the boundary changes are estimated to have slashed that to just 0.03 per cent.

The changing nature of the seat could be seen in a poll of Corangamite voters asked to name the top issue when casting their vote.

Almost one third of the 856 respondents said the environment and climate change were the most important issue.

Terrorism and security, immigration and law and order — typically strong platforms for conservative parties — were identified as the least important issues in Corangamite.

More heartening for the conservative incumbent was the poll’s finding that more than 57 per cent of respondents said they ‘support’ or ‘strongly support’ the Liberal Party’s proposal to cut Australia’s immigration intake.

And less than half — 43 per cent — of those surveyed were supportive of one of Labor’s key election policies — rolling back negative gearing tax breaks.

With the odds stacked against her, Ms Henderson is urging voters to stand by her.

“I understand I am the underdog in this fight,” she wrote in a letter to the Geelong Advertiser last week.

“But I also know how much damage would be done to our region if we were represented, wall to wall, by Labor MPs.”

The former ABC journalist went on to say her record of delivery was “second to none”, citing the $154 million City Deal contribution and the new NDIA headquarters among her achievements.

“I respectfully ask the people of Corangamite to stick with me,” Ms Henderson said.

That public plea came on the back of the Addy/ReachTEL poll which indicated she was headed for defeat at the next election with the Liberal Party on track to record a primary vote of just 32.2 per cent in Corangamite — or 14 per cent less than last election.

The Liberal Party’s overthrowing of Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister in August appears to have severely hurt Ms Henderson’s chances of reelection, with 57 per cent of voters saying they were less likely to vote for the party after Scott Morrison became the nation’s leader.

If Mr Turnbull had remained prime minister, Dr Robinson said that he believed it would have made a “substantial” difference to Ms Henderson’s prospects.

“I still think she would’ve faced a difficult road given it (Corangamite) is now an ultra-marginal seat … but I do think she definitely would’ve been in a better position,” he said.

“I think she will go down as one of the victims from the shift from Turnbull to Morrison.”

Given its ultra-tight margin, plenty of attention is turning to Corangamite as the clock ticks down to the federal election, which is widely tipped for May.

Even Darryn Lyons — unperturbed by his unsuccessful tilt at state politics — has flagged his interest in running for the seat as an independent candidate.

Asked whether she was concerned about the prospect of Mr Lyons’ candidacy, Ms Henderson said: “I welcome anyone who decides to contest the seat of Corangamite, which is a fundamental tenet of our democracy.”

Dr Robinson said that Mr Lyons running in the seat could actually benefit the incumbent MP due to the flow of preferences, but not significantly.

The Deakin academic also hosed down any speculation Mr Lyons could win the seat if he chose to throw his hat in the ring.

“I think he would fare poorly overall because I think he would have the problem of it being a highly marginal seat and his vote would be squeezed down by the two major parties,” Dr Robinson said.

Meanwhile, Libby Coker and her Labor camp are privately (and understandably) feeling buoyed about their chances.

But this is the unpredictable world of Australian politics — and no one is popping the champagne just yet.