Population explosion
Big city spill could see one million in Geelong
GEELONG would become home to more than a million people who will earn slightly higher average incomes under a push to have more dispersed population growth across regional Victorian cities over the next 30 years.
Under current growth patterns, Geelong’s population is expected to grow to about 440,000 by 2056 while Melbourne soars to 10.2 million.
However, research has explored the likely economic impacts if more people shifted to the regions and under its two alternative population growth scenarios, the “high” population mark predicted for Geelong in 2056 is 1,120,312 people.
Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics and State Government projections, the “moderate” population predicted for Geelong under these models is 761,192, a 73 per cent increase on “business as usual”.
The modelling is based on two models: a “concentrated regional growth” pattern where population growth is focused on Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Latrobe; and “dispersed regional growth” where population growth is spread across Greater Bendigo, Greater Geelong, Greater Shepparton, Ballarat, Latrobe, Warrnambool, and AlburyWodonga.
The projections are contained in a new report, Regional Population Growth: Are We Ready? which promotes a population shift away from the capital’s sprawling outer suburbs.
“The modelling suggests that the key measures of housing prices and commute distances would not be as high for outer suburban residents under the dispersed population scenario,” the report says.
“For regional city residents there would be higher real average incomes and also average house prices (all other things being equal), retaining the regional city advantage in the house price to income ratio.”
The report says for regional cities, a redistribution of population growth would contribute to an increase in average real (inflation adjusted) incomes of about 4.6 per cent, contribute 0.4 percentage points to unemployment, increase average house costs of 10 per cent and see no change in commute distance.
Under current settlement patterns, most of the country’s future population growth will be in major capital cities.
In Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, the outer suburban population is forecast to more than double and in Brisbane, the outer suburbs population level will almost triple.
The modelling found that under its business as usual scenario, commute distances in outer Sydney and Melbourne will increase by about 60 per cent and close to 25 per cent in outer Brisbane and Perth.
The Regional Australia Institute says the research raises questions about the type of future Australia will have if predicted population growth continued as projected in the outer suburbs of the major cities.
Institute co-chief Kim Houghton said many workers living in outer city suburbs could be financially better off if they moved to regional Australia.
“Many homeowners in our state capitals are paying double the mortgage of their regional city counterparts, but have a similar average wage,” Dr Houghton said.
“Australia’s population is set to grow by up to 19 million by 2056, with the Sydney and Melbourne to hit megacity status in the next few decades. Brisbane and Perth will grow to the size of Sydney and Melbourne today.”