DAHLHAUS: CATS PUMPED TO FINISH STRONG
We piece together the BFL premiership puzzle ahead of a finals series set to go down to the wire
WILL Geelong Amateur shake off a Round 18 thumping at the hands of Barwon Heads and claim the BFL premiership, or will the Seagulls continue their charge and go one better than last year? Can Torquay come back from 2018 turmoil to win its second flag in three seasons? Or will reigning premier Modewarre or fifth-placed Anglesea claim four-straight finals for an unlikely flag? Newcomb coach RORY NICOL dissects the final five.
BARWON HEADS
Why they can win it: The experience of last year will help them. Last year they relied on Mitch Phelps to kick them a score but they don’t rely on him anymore, which is a good thing. They’re a pretty even side and don’t rely on any one player. If interleague defender Dylan Holland returns to the side, that will be a massive boost for them too, especially against a Mitch Day or Jordan Erskine. Why they can’t win it: I think the way they were manhandled in last year’s grand final, they’ve probably rectified that, but they’re still not the tallest side going around. If they’re forced to bomb it down the line or high into their forward line, they’re going to struggle. John Meesen, Nathan Ablett and Daniel Sturzaker dominated in the air in last year’s grand final. TORQUAY Why they can win it: They’ve got a terrific blend of experience and youth as well. They played really good footy against us without Dom Gleeson and Ben Raidme on the weekend. Their ball movement was as good as I’ve seen from Torquay, just very quick on the outside, which is something I’ve thought they’ve always lacked. If they can add Billy Henderson, who kicked 60 goals in their 2017 premiership season, he’ll be a massive in too, alongside Paul McMahon who works really hard. And they don’t rely on any one player up forward, they just play best-option footy. Why they can’t win it: Have they got a full list to pick from? Raidme went off pretty sore in Round 17 against Portarlington so I don’t know where he’s at. Will Gleeson and Henderson be right? Those three all really need to play, so fitness is my only question mark on them.
ANGLESEA
Why they can win it: Their strength is their backline with guys like Dale Carson, Dyson Bell-Warren and Ryan Williams. Ruckman Zane Vail needs to have an impact, both in the middle and up forward if they’re to win, especially if the Warriors are without John Meesen. They’ve got flexibility in their line-up with Dale Carson, but he has to play forward to really try and stretch the Warriors and draw another tall defender. Why they can’t win it: They’re just too focused on Jordan Erskine. We’ve played them twice. First time we played them, Erskine kicked 12 and Anglesea kicked 14. Last time he kicked six out of their nine. Blake Grant is their next highest goal scorer with 20 from 14 games, at less than Player to watch: Matty Dyer. When he jumps into the ruck, he really plays as an extra on-baller for the Seagulls. He’s actually got a big vertical leap from a standing start and then goes and hunts the footy. You’ve got to make him accountable in the ruck. And Mitch Herbison too, he’s a class above. He can lose you when he swaps forward, as evidenced by 31 goals this year. Prediction: Second They set up really well, especially behind stoppages, so you not only have to win the clearances but you have to change lanes and make sure you don’t just kick it back to them. Otherwise I think they’re a massive chance. Player to watch: Raidme. He’s played 17 games this season and had a week off going into finals. He missed out on the 2017 grand final and I think his teammates will be keen to get him that flag. He’s a very good stoppage player, can kick goals too and it’s hard to tag him from a wing. Prediction: Premiers one-and-a-half a game. I can’t see where their goals are coming from. They’re just too predictable. Player to watch: Obviously you’ve got to watch Erskine, but if you get that match-up right, you’ll go a long way to stopping Anglesea. Ryan Williams is a great stoppage player and can kick goals forward too. Prediction: Fifth
GEELONG AMATEUR
Why they can win it: Finishing top with the week off will do them good. They’ve got a good mix of experience and youth. Patrick Killen and Harry Kershaw in the middle are quite dangerous, they’ve got the bookends with Mitch Day and Daniel Lovick, and they’ve got the experience of Jarrod Young and Brad Surkitt in the middle. It’s a nice blend.
MODEWARRE
Why they can win it: You just can’t write them off. They’ve got quality forward-mids with Thomas Worpel, Mitch Fisher and Josh McDonald. They’ve got a real even spread of players, Modewarre. I find them hard to match-up on. And they’ve just got good culture, they’ve got a bit of a never-say-die attitude and constantly find players to come out of the reserves and play a role. And they’ve been there and done it. They’re the reigning champs.
Why they can’t win it: Is ruckman and co-coach John Meesen done for the year? He’s by far the standout ruck in the competition and gives first use to his midfielders but without him, the Warriors lose their biggest weapon. And also, they don’t have a double
Why they can’t win it: Will their bottom six have an impact? They’re good at the stoppages and Day is dangerous when he has space, so if sides can stop them getting through the front of the stoppages and clog up space in front of Day, they can dry up Ammos’ scoring. There’s question marks on where they’ll get goals if Day doesn’t dominate. You want to make Lovick accountable too, you can’t let him stand where he wants to stand. chance so they can’t afford a slip up. They need a fit list for four weeks.
Player to watch: Nathan Ablett really needs to have an impact, as he did in finals last year. Ablett can’t cover the loss of Meesen, but if both those guys are firing, I think the Warriors can still win it from fourth. I’d be using Ablett up high at centre-half forward and even behind the footy.
Prediction: Fourth
Player to watch: Killen and Kershaw, those two will swap between the middle and forward and they’re the two I’d be putting work into. Killen has 19 goals and Kershaw 22 this season. If they kick four or five between them and Day kicks another five on top of that, they’re nearly there. Stop them and you’ll keep Ammos to under 12 goals and you’ll win.
Prediction: Third