THE FAST & FURIOUS

Beware of the wounded. Heading out in straight sets last year would not sit well with the team and the Lions will no doubt have a point to prove this finals series. If they fully cash in on Trent West’s dominant ruck work they get a chance. I’m not sure if they have the natural running ability to find enough uncontested footy. The Lions also need to make sure that their tackles stick. Trent West is the best ruckman in the competition, averaging a staggering 52 hit-outs and 23 of those per game going to advantage. He is a massive asset in finals. Marcus Thompson is clearly one of the competition’s premier ball winners, averaging 27 touches and four effective tackles per game.

Fifth Colac is a team that ticks all the boxes. The Tigers finished on top and have earnt the week’s break. They’ve also only lost two matches for the season, back in Rounds 4 and 5. Colac is a well-balanced team that has no obvious weakness and its depth is superb, with its reserves finishing second. It means that if any injuries do come up then it is well placed to replace them. The Tigers will be fine on GMHBA Stadium too, having played on a large home ground all season. I think that will mean they will come into finals with elevated fitness levels and a game plan that is frequently executed on a big ground. They are the best kicking side in the competition and they play for each other — ranked on top for one percenters, effective tackles and hard ball gets. Colac is also very disciplined, conceding the least amount of 50m penalties (11). In two words — St Joseph’s. The Joeys are a team that has the talent to take it right up to the Tigers. Complacency could be a factor, given their strong finish to the year … or coping with the pressure that comes with flag favouritism Campbell Floyd has been superb this season, averaging almost 20 touches and three effective tackles a game. He is a match winner. Jonathan Simpkin is class. He is averaging almost three deep forward entries a game, to go with his 26 disposals. Travis Woodmason is an experienced head in a talented team.

Premiers

Picture: STEPHEN HARMAN Jordan Keras is clearly a level above, averaging 28 touches, almost four tackles per game. He has been a crucial cog for St Joseph’s since stepping back from VFL duties. A game winner. Curtis McCarthy is another VFL-listed Geelong player, who has been dominant at GFL level. Can play at either end of the ground and have an impact. Second of their last 13 to make the top five, only sneaking in on the last day. That has to take a toll. They also need to be more disciplined, having conceded 31 50m penalties for the season. If their half-back receives are shut down, they will need to take more contested marks. Max Augerinos has only played four games this season, but will have a significant impact on the finals race if St Mary’s goes all the way. He has averaged 21 touches. Zak Sherman is another worth watching, averaging 22 touches and a goal a game from his 14 matches. Prediction: Third appears they need to work harder on their spread for uncontested marks. Players to watch: Matthew McMahon is a GFL champion and a player you just know will stand up again in finals. The veteran is averaging 20 touches per game and is a reliable clearance winner. Alexander Cincotta has been talked about as an AFL prospect for a reason. He is electric, averaging 18 touches per game. Fourth Matthew McMahon Colac’s Campbell Floyd. Trent West

ST MARY’S Why they can win it My smoky pick for the premiership, but will have to do it the hard way. The Saints are the best team around stoppages and clearances. If the opposition is unable to shut down their half-back receives their link-up game style will break the lines and be good enough. After three successive grand final defeats the players will know what is needed and will be hungry. Why they can’t win it One major factor is the mental and physical fatigue associated with their long run to make the finals. The Saints won 11 Max Augerinos

Never underestimate selfbelief. The reigning premiers will be full of it due to a vast amount of finals success at GMHBA Stadium. They have the best percentage in the competition and are ranked on top for defending and scoring. They also lead the GFL for intercept marks and contested marks. Clearly St Joseph’s has the best defence in the comp with an impressive 888 points against and the least amount of turnovers in the back half. Why they can’t win it Need to tactically mitigate the opposition’s dominant ruck work, which they have done so far, being highly ranked around stoppages and centre clearances They also need to work much harder for each other, ranked fifth for one percenters including blocks and chasing. Jordan Keras Players to watch