Best scenario looks bad
Australia’s health chief says 50,000 of us could die
AS many as 50,000 Australians could die from the coronavirus under the most conservative forecast from the Federal Government’s medical experts.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly says authorities are expecting “something in the range” of 20 per cent to 60 per cent of Australia’s population of 25 million are expected to contract the virus.
With an expected mortality rate of 1 per cent, even the bestcase scenario would see 50,000 people die from the virus.
As of last night, 336 Australians have contracted the virus and five have died, with 14 new cases identified in Victoria as a state of emergency was declared.
The unprecedented national cabinet will meet tonight to consider further extraordinary measures recommended by medical experts to slow the spread of the virus.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has already flagged significant restrictions on visitors at aged care homes, which are expected to be locked down to protect vulnerable elderly residents.
Three people have already died at the Dorothy Henderson Lodge in Sydney, including a 90-year-old woman on Saturday.
Advice from the nation’s chief medical officers is also expected to see Australia’s battle plan ramped up with extra measures to limit public gatherings, particularly in enclosed spaces.
Professor Kelly would not say how many Australians he expected to contract the virus, but that it was in the 20-60 per cent range, 80 per cent of whom would be “mildly affected”.
“This is an infectious disease. The more we can do to separate people and stop the infection spreading the better,” Prof Kelly said. “This week it’s all about slowing the curve of the epidemic.”
Aged Care Minister Richard Colbeck said the government was already recommending aged care homes limited access to visitors.
“The restrictions will be handled professionally and sensitively,” he said.
Leading Age Services Australia chief Sean Rooney said some homes had already prevented entry to everyone except essential staff.
Intensive screening measures and temperature testing are being rolled out and visits by children and school groups have been discontinued at some facilities.
“This is about protecting our most vulnerable and saving lives, and we ask all families and friends of loved ones to co-operate,” Mr Rooney said.
In the United Kingdom, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said every person aged over 70 would be asked in coming weeks to stay at home “for a very long time”.
Prof Kelly said a comprehensive review of the nation’s emergency care facilities and the availably of ventilators was under way, with a shortage of testing kits also being assessed.