Race for the flag on in earnest from now
NOW is when the real stuff begins.
As recent history has taught us, it’s all well and good to be playing good football throughout the home-and-away season but it is the final month that truly counts.
For less than 24 hours over the weekend Geelong held top spot on the AFL ladder following its triumphant comeback against the Western Bulldogs.
While that is always a nice pointer to good form, the Cats might have been glad the Power took the lead back on Saturday afternoon.
That’s because the minor premiership and, equally, which club is leading the way with four games to go in the season doesn’t bear much
TEAM ON TOP OF LADDER WITH FOUR GAMES TO GO weight on finals. The last five seasons encapsulate that theory perfectly.
In that time, only one side on top of the ladder with four matches to play — Adelaide in 2017 — actually made the grand final. And Crows fans will gladly forget the result of that day.
Geelong knows only too well how little form at this point of the year means in the end.
The Cats were starting to wobble by Round 19 last season and eventually lost a heartbreaking preliminary final to the Tigers.
Before then, Richmond showed cracks in its facade before a crushing preliminary final loss of its own to Collingwood in 2018.
Two years earlier, Hawthorn’s push for four consecutive flags was starting to run out of gas before a straight-sets exit.
Since the turn of the century, only six out of 20 minor premiers have gone on to win the premiership and none since the 2013 Hawks.
Some teams, such as Geelong in 2008 and that Adelaide side, looked like unbackable favourites as we rounded the final turn towards September.
We are now at the point where premiership sides catch fire.
Richmond’s twin triumphs in the past three years were built on scintillating runs into the finals, while the 2018 West Coast Eagles quietly won six of their last eight matches before September.
We expect a pre-finals bye will again be held this year, putting early form at even less of a premium. So while it is well and good the Cats are flying at the moment, it will count for squat when they face a major foe in the first final.
This point is not lost on those inside the Geelong camp, who have felt the pain of evaporating form at the wrong time over the past decade.
Coach Chris Scott has noted that the rotating and resting of players through a condensed fixture is over and his side will now favour continuity and cohesion over freshness where possible.
The Cats have all the puzzle pieces to go all the way and have run the marathon of this season perfectly to this point.
Now the sprint home to glory begins.