Wet conditions on way
GEELONG and the Surf Coast are facing a wet end to 2020 with about a 70 per cent chance of above average rainfall across the region in the next three months.
Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Jonathan Pollock said it was likely to be a “really wet” October to December, with October in particular to bring heavy rain.
“Looking forward from now until Christmas, we’re looking at high odds of above average rainfall in Geelong,” Mr Pollock said. “We expect that October has the strongest signal and will be doing most of the heavy lifting.”
Across Geelong, there is a 72 per cent chance the region is to receive above its average rainfall of 150mm in October to December.
In Aireys Inlet, there is an 85 per cent chance it will rain at least 150mm, with a 49 per cent chance of it reaching at least 200mm during the coming three months.
But Mr Pollock said the wet conditions would not affect a rise in temperatures.
“Day temperatures are looking to be warmer than average and nights are likely to be warmer too,” Mr Pollock said.
From Tuesday, temperatures are expected to reach the low 20s across Geelong and the Surf Coast, with the mercury set to reach a top of 24C on Friday.
It comes after more than 16mm of rain was recorded in Geelong between Friday and Sunday, with snow seen falling over areas in the region including at Bannockburn on Friday.
Further down the coast, near Apollo Bay’s Beech Forest, snow blanketed roads, signs and trees, while heavy rainfall created a waterfall at the Twelve Apostles on Friday morning.
The September rainfall for Geelong has surpassed 82mm — 43mm more than the total rainfall in this month last year.
The SES warned last week of potential flooding through all of October and urged residents to clear out any blocks in gutters as part of preparing homes for rain.
Last month, warnings were issued for the Barwon River, which briefly reached minor flood level in Geelong.
BOM has predicted a strong likelihood of a La Nina weather pattern, which is at “alert” status, with the potential of a La Nina this spring three times as likely as a normal year.
The last significant La Nina event was in 2010-2011, which had devastating consequences from river flooding across Victoria.