Voters rejecting Labor, Libs

Poll finds more Victorians turning to minor parties

A MAJOR poll reveals huge numbers of Victorians are turning off the state Labor and Liberal parties, with almost 40 per cent of voters now backing neither.

The United Australia Party has also moved ahead of the Greens, as Victoria’s third most popular party, with 7.4 per cent of people saying they would back it.

The poll, conducted a year out from the state election, found less than a third of Victorians – 32.4 per cent – said they would currently vote Labor. This represents a drop of more than 10 per cent from the 42.9 per cent who backed the ALP to victory in 2018 and is only 2 per cent higher than the disastrous Liberal vote at the last election.

Support for the Liberal Party has dropped further still, from 30.43 per cent to 28.8 per cent.

By far the largest number of people, almost 40 per cent, said they were undecided or would back the minor parties.

The new poll, conducted by bipartisan research and polling firm RedBridge, surveyed 2400 voters in eight key seats from November 26 to 28.

RedBridge director Kos Samaras

said: “At the moment what we are seeing is a Liberal primary vote unable to punch through its 2018 levels and a Labor primary experiencing pressure from minor parties.”

The support for both majors is expected to improve at next year’s election, with many of the 9.7 per cent of people who said they were undecided likely to swing in behind one or the other.

RedBridge estimated that once the undecided vote was redistributed, Labor’s primary total would lift to 36 per cent, still down nearly 7 per cent on its 2018 vote. The Liberals would creep up to 32 per cent, an increase of less than 2 per cent on the 2018 thumping.

Once all the independents’ and minors’ preferences are fed back to the traditional powerhouses, RedBridge predicts Labor would emerge victorious with 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, losing a handful of seats but still winning comfortably.

But the low primary vote will greatly worry both major parties and could signal a significant shift amid unprecedented times.

And the UAP and even the new centrist Victorians Party could pick up a handful of upper house seats and influence the results in critical lower house seats, depending on who they preference.

UAP spokesman Andrew Crook said the party would field candidates in every Victorian seat at the upcoming federal election, while a decision about whether to register a Victorian branch of the party had not yet been made.

Mr Samaras predicted Clive Palmer’s huge advertising campaign backing the UAP would definitely impact the upcoming federal election.

But he said: “It’s unclear if this level of voter volatility is sustained beyond that and into the state election”.

RedBridge senior consultant Tony Barry said there was still hope for the Liberals.

“If Liberal Party headquarters can execute a good campaign there’s an opportunity to harvest votes from the minor parties and make some significant electoral gains,” he said.

The poll was done across the seats of Eureka, Eltham, Brighton, Bentleigh, Evelyn, Carrum, Kalkallo and Melton – a spread seen as broadly representative of the state population.