GST at top of Budget risks

FORESTRY Tasmania, the NDIS, the GST and the cost of justice reforms are among risks to the Liberals’ surplus plans.

First on the list of risks and sensitivities identified by Treasury in this year’s Budget is the review of GST distribution, which could cause the state to lose a huge chunk of revenue if the distribution method is changed.

The National Disability Insurance Scheme starts in full in July 2019, and Tasmania will pay $232 million in 2019-20, which will then escalate at 3.5 per cent a year.

However, the contribution could change pending a review of the scheme’s costs.

The major restructure of Forestry Tasmania has been identified as a risk, given uncertainty about the amount FT will get from the sale of about 29,000ha of plantations, and when that money will flow.

The Budget does not include the effect of the plantation sale and no transitional support has been included in the Budget, so there is a risk the proceeds won’t be enough to cover the restructure.

A number of risks have been identified in the justice portfolio.

Continued pressure on the Prison Service makes costs difficult to forecast and manage.

The phasing out of suspended sentences has attracted significant new funding in 2017-18 and across the forward estimates.

But the actual costs may vary when policies are implemented.