And now for the election

THE State Budget has put the Hodgman Government firmly on election footing.

This Government may well deny it, but this $5.8 billion document is clearly designed to win the next election and ensure the Government retains its majority. At first glance, the fundamentals are strong. It did what was largely expected, making clear statements in the key areas of health, jobs and education — the “Big Three” the Government knows will determine its fortunes when the punters cast their votes.

The cornerstone was an additional $658 million over the next four years for health, which will take expenditure in the sector to more than $7 billion.

Polling around the federal election showed health was the No. 1 issue impacting on Tasmanians, particularly in the North of the state, and the Government has responded. The funding includes 350 extra frontline and support staff — including 215 nurses — plus 106 permanently funded hospital beds.

Only time will tell us whether these new hospital beds, for which there is no firm timeline, will get the Government out of trouble when it comes to the massive pressure on the health system in the South.

Education makes up more than a quarter of the budget and $657 million has been put towards infrastructure.

The Budget does not forecast any new taxes or public sector job cuts.

And it addresses key local issues, such as the hot topic of traffic congestion in and around Hobart.

Given the economic foundations unveiled last night ... the Hodgman Government is now in a position of considerable strength

But less certain is the long-term sustainability of the surplus or whether big-ticket pre-election promises will significantly erode this number.

The Government unveiled a $54 million surplus, which will hover at a similar level for the following three years. However much rests on an upcoming Productivity Commission review of GST distribution, which could wreck the Government’s plans.

Premier Will Hodgman showed just how high the stakes were when he said: “If anyone thinks that a change to the GST is going to be accepted by the state of Tasmania I’ll tell ‘em they’re dreamin’ because we deserve our fair share.”

The state’s public sector superannuation liability also punched a $286 million hole in the budget and remains a thorn in the Treasurer’s side.

The ball is now in Labor’s court to craft an alternative vision.

It will run hard on GST uncertainty and the crisis of confidence in the health system, one it says was of the Government’s own making, which sparked such a powerhouse response, and will question where the dollars are for preventive health. It will continue to question the Government’s jobs figures which cloud a bigger issue of under-employment.

But given the economic foundations unveiled last night, including rising business confidence and a surging tourism industry, the Hodgman Government is now in a position of considerable strength.

Whether it deems it strong enough to call an early poll while the new-look Opposition is still finding its feet will likely be determined by how the community now responds. Whichever way it chooses, it will likely strike when it feels it has the best chance of retaining majority rule.