Lucky 13 still a chance

EIGHTEEN started, but an incredible 13 clubs remain in the hunt for September with six rounds of the home-and-away season to play.

AFL number cruncher Champion Data has identified 12 of the 54 homeand-away games which could shape the eight from top to bottom.

Of those, three will be decided this week.

Adelaide can land a body blow in the battle for the top-two against Geelong; a depleted Melbourne must defeat Port Adelaide to stay in the top-four race; while Sydney can go a long way towards booking its September ticket with a win over St Kilda.

With the evenness of the competition, Champion Data is only prepared to put a line through four clubs for 2017 — Gold Coast, Brisbane, Carlton and North Melbourne.

Hawthorn has the edge on Collingwood, which could mathematically still make the eight, after its shock draw against GWS Giants a fortnight ago.

Adelaide is the only club guaranteed to play finals, according to Champion Data, while GWS and Geelong are rated 99 per cent chances.

Sydney is considered a 92 per cent chance to do what used to be consid- ered unthinkable and make the eight despite its 0-6 start.

Long-suffering Richmond (73 per cent) and Melbourne (72 per cent) fans can breathe a sigh of relief, with finals on the horizon after banking early wins.

Premiers Western Bulldogs — currently in a logjam outside the eight with St Kilda and Essendon — are a 36 per cent chance of making it.

The Bulldogs clash with Essendon in Round 19 in one of five important games that could shape the eight.

The Bombers could catapult into finals calculations (54 per cent chance) with a win over the Bulldogs, whose chances plummet to 15 per cent with a loss.

St Kilda has the most (four) important games in the run home.

A loss to Sydney this week, alone, would shave six per cent (33 down to 27) off the Saints’ top-eight chances.