THE RUN HOME: HOW YOUR AFL TEAM SHAPES UP —
1. ADELAIDE
48pts, 140.4% R18 Geelong (AO) W R19 Collingwood (MCG) W R20 Port Adelaide (AO) W R21 Essendon (ES) W R22 Sydney (AO) W R23 West Coast (DS) L The Crows might be 0-3 in the Don Pyke era against Geelong, but home ground and the prospect of shoring up a toptwo spot should see them edge past the Cats. The Crows would not want to drop this with the Showdown — a lottery — and a dangerous Essendon on the horizon.
2. GEELONG
46pts, 118.1% R18 Adelaide (AO) L R19 Carlton (ES) W R20 Sydney (SS) W R21 Richmond (SS) W R22 Collingwood (MCG) W R23 GWS (SS) W Will he, won’t he? That is the question. The smart play is for Patrick Dangerfield (foot) to sit out and focus on the following five rounds — all winnable games. If he plays and the Cats win, then top spot is well and truly on the agenda. If not, the Round 23 Giants clash could decide qualifying final homeground advantage.
3. GWS
44pts, 115.7% R18 Richmond (MCG) W R19 Fremantle (SPO) W R20 Melbourne (UNSW) W R21 Western Bulldogs (ES) W R22 West Coast (SPO) W R23 Geelong (SS) L The Ferrari revs OK in the garage, but we’re yet to see the orange-and-grey machine in top gear. A win over Richmond at the ‘G could certainly get the ball rolling towards September in what could potentially be their last game on the hallowed turf before the big dance.
4. PORT ADELAIDE
40pts, 135.3% R18 Melbourne (MCG) W R19 St Kilda (AO) W R20 Adelaide (AO) L R21 Collingwood (AO) W R22 Western Bulldogs (EU) L R23 Gold Coast (AO) W Big game against the Dees with a top-four spot up for grabs. The Crows and premiers Western Bulldogs in Ballarat are the only headaches for this premiership smoky.
5. RICHMOND
40pts, 107.4% R18 GWS (MCG) L R19 Gold Coast (MS) W R20 Hawthorn (MCG) W R21 Geelong (SS) L R22 Fremantle (DS) W R23 St Kilda (MCG) W Did a job on Port Adelaide and will need to do the same against Geelong in Round 21 to keep faint top-four hopes alive. The Giants are gettable, but mindful of their midfield class and tall timber forward that could stretch the Tigers.
6. SYDNEY
36pts, 113.4% R18 St Kilda (SCG) W R19 Hawthorn (MCG) W R20 Geelong (SS) L R21 Fremantle (SCG) W R22 Adelaide (AO) L R23 Carlton (SCG) W Have done an incredible job to get this far, but the job is far from over. A win over St Kilda this week gives the Swans a 96 per cent chance of making the eight, according to Champion Data. If all goes to plan, then a top-four spot could also be up for grabs in Round 20 against Geelong.
7. MELBOURNE
36pts, 106.7% R18 Port Adelaide (MCG) L R19 North Melbourne (BA) W R20 GWS (UNSW) L R21 St Kilda (MCG) W R22 Brisbane Lions (MCG) W R23 Collingwood (MCG) W The next month can make or break the Demons. The Power and Saints assignments have major top-four and top-eight ramifications, while Simon Goodwin still had four solid seasons of footy left in Adelaide the last time the Demons defeated North Melbourne.
8. WEST COAST
36pts, 102.1% R18 Collingwood (ES) W R19 Brisbane Lions (S) W R20 St Kilda (ES) L R21 Carlton (S) W R22 GWS (SPO) L R23 Adelaide (S) W As good as Drew Petrie, Nathan Vardy and Jack Darling have been covering for Josh Kennedy, the big boy goalkicker holds the key to September. The dual Coleman medallist returned with 3.2 last week and should only improve. A win over the Saints at Etihad could cement a place in the top eight.
9. ST KILDA
36pts, 99.4% R18 Sydney (SCG) L R19 Port Adelaide (AO) L R20 West Coast (ES) W R21 Melbourne (MCG) L R22 North Melbourne (ES) W R23 Richmond (MCG) L Too inconsistent to be relied on in the run home. Their best could see them rocket into the finals but their worst is far from competitive. Tough ask playing Swans and Power in back-to-back road trips.
10. ESSENDON
32pts, 108.5% R18 North Melbourne (ES) W R19 Western Bulldogs (ES) L R20 Carlton (MCG) W R21 Adelaide (ES) L R22 Gold Coast (MS) W R23 Fremantle (ES) W Will need to get past the Bulldogs or Adelaide to get the chocolates. A win over the Bulldogs would give the Bombers a 54 per cent chance of making the eight, according to Champion Data.
11. W BULLDOGS
32pts, 94.2% R18 Gold Coast (CS) W R19 Essendon (ES) W R20 Brisbane Lions (G) W R21 GWS (ES) L R22 Port Adelaide (EU) W R23 Hawthorn (ES) L Will need a lot to go right to steady the ship. Have so far been unable to string good games together and that is exactly what needs to happen for the premiers to defend their title. The last month is very tricky.
12. FREMANTLE
28pts, 80.6% R18 Hawthorn (S) L R19 GWS (SPO) L R20 Gold Coast (S) W R21 Sydney (SCG) L R22 Richmond (S) L R23 Essendon (ES) L With a 1 per cent chance to make the eight, Ross Lyon is best to turn his attention to helping Chris and Brad Scott plot their International Rules campaign.
13. HAWTHORN
26pts, 84.4% R18 Fremantle (DS) W R19 Sydney (MCG) L R20 Richmond (MCG) L R21 North Melbourne (US) W R22 Carlton (ES) W R23 Western Bulldogs (ES) W Will not make the eight, but can certainly shape the eight playing Sydney, Bulldogs and Richmond in the run home.