Query on big Greens surge for Franklin

EXCLUSIVE MERCURY POLLING:

FRANKLIN could be overtaking Denison as Tasmania’s “greenest electorate”, according to new ReachTEL polling.

A ReachTEL poll of 2817 Tasmanians conducted exclusively for the Mercury shows support for the Greens in Franklin at 20 per cent.

Support for the party in Denison was 15.7 per cent and support statewide was 12.8 per cent.

But polling analyst Kevin Bonham said the result was likely “sample noise” and an anomaly, given the small sample size per electorate.

“It has sometimes happened in the past the Greens have polled at a higher level in Franklin, but at election day it matters not,” Dr Bonham said.

It was difficult to tell whether the “Wilkie factor” was having an impact on party preferences in Denison, he said.

The Greens seat in Franklin is held by former Huon Valley councillor Rosalie Woodruff, who was elected in 2015 on a recount following Nick McKim’s move to the Senate.

The poll indicates Dr Woodruff is now the safest Green in the state, a position traditionally enjoyed by the Greens’ Denison MP, currently leader Cassy O’Connor.

Independent Denison MHR Andrew Wilkie has indicated he is interested in being involved in the state election, including endorsing an independent candidate, but is yet to declare his hand.

Speculation is rife it could be Kristie Johnston, the Glenorchy mayor who, along with her council, has been suspended by the State Government.

“It’s possible there are people in Denison saying independent rather than Green in the hope there might be someone running but I don’t think that’s a big part of it,” Dr Bonham said.

Dr Bonham’s analysis of the poll predicts mixed fortunes for the Greens at the next election: the party struggling to retain its seat in Bass while possibly picking up a seat in Lyons.

Ms O’Connor said the poll confirmed the Greens had a strong base in Franklin.

“There’s a strong Green streak in Franklin where environmental protection, properly funded public services, human rights and protecting the brand are real concerns,” she said.

The poll results in Ms O’Connor’s seat of Denison showed the election was set to be an interesting contest.

“The Greens have a good story to tell of a party that’s tirelessly stood for this island’s environment and communities who want to look after the places they love,” she said.

If a state election was held today, who would receive your first preference? SOURCE: REACHTEL