Moment of medal truth for Buddy

LANCE Franklin’s hopes of emulating the great Tony Lockett and collecting a fourth Coleman Medal may hinge on Sydney’s ability to execute a first-quarter ambush against the best team in the competition.

The race for the AFL’s top goal scorer is as wide open as ever, with West Coast Eagle Josh Kennedy (60) leading from Essendon’s Joe Daniher (59) and Franklin (56).

At the moment Bomber Daniher is the short-priced favourite to top the charts, given he finishes the year with two potential days out against the battling Gold Coast and Fremantle. Kennedy has his work cut out against the Giants and Adelaide in a horror run home.

Franklin will fancy his chances of coming home with a wet sail in the final round against Carlton, but he must also find a way to damage the scoreboard at Adelaide Oval in Friday night’s blockbuster.

Buddy will take confidence from last week’s first-half blitzkrieg against the Dockers and his four-goal demolition of Adelaide in last year’s semifinal. Sydney’s historic run has been shaped by its ability to outscore opponents by 72 points in the opening 10 minutes of games this year, according to afl.com stats.

The Swans’ 169-point haul in the first 10 minutes of matches is second only to Essendon’s.

In last year’s semi-final at the SCG, the Swans kicked seven of the first nine goals of the game in the first 25 minutes. Conversely, if the Crows can hold firm they have not lost any of the nine matches this season where they have led at quarter-time.