Federal chaos hurting local Libs: experts

Labor lead stretches in Newspoll

THE Turnbull Government’s problems are having a massive impact on the State Liberals’ chances of re-election and may be dragging down their vote by as much as 5 per cent, polling analyst Kevin Bonham says.

His comments come after the latest Newspoll stretched federal Labor’s lead to 54:46 in two-party preferred terms after a recent run of 53:47 results.

The poll result came after citizenship dramas involving federal politicians and internal division over the $122 million same-sex marriage postal survey.

Recent polling in Tasmania revealed the possibility of a hung parliament after the next state election, which is due by March.

University of Tasmania political scientist Richard Eccleston said momentum around Australia was with Labor.

“Clearly there is a relationship between state and federal votes for the major parties and the first indicator of a mood swing comes in state elections,” Prof Eccleston said.

“Since 2014 nearly all elections have gone to Labor with the unexpected result in Victoria and the unsurprising swing against the Barnett Government in WA.

“The 2016 federal election result was part of the pattern which began after the 2014 Budget and problems of the Abbott government.”

Dr Bonham said history showed the chances of re-election were 50/50 for state governments when there had been federal governments of the same party.

“When the other party is in power federally they nearly always retain with the percentage rising to 85 per cent,” he said.

He said it was unlikely the Liberals would want Mr Turnbull, who spoke at the State Council meeting in Launceston on Saturday, to be front and centre close to the election.

“They will want to be forging their own direction and stressing their own credentials,” Dr Bonham said.

He said the federal drag was probably about 5 per cent as a “rough guesstimate”.

But Prof Eccleston said the dire state of the Federal Government may also present an opportunity for the Hodgman Government.

“With the chaos that seems to be engulfing the Turnbull Government with chaos in the Senate and its wafer-thin majority perhaps there is an opportunity to emphasise the importance of majority government and the stability it brings,” Prof Eccleston said.

“One of the big issues come March [by which time the state election is due] will be the hung parliament issue so perhaps there is a silver lining there for the Libs.”

The Newspoll showed Mr Turnbull was still preferred prime minister over Bill Shorten 43:33 — but the Coalition primary vote had dropped to 35 per cent compared with Labor’s 38 per cent.

Locally a ReachTEL poll in late July showed the state Liberals on 40.8 per cent to Labor’s 31.2 per cent.