A Melbourne Cup field in poll lead-up

THE battle for Denison has become the race to watch in the upcoming State Election, with uncertainty over how the seats will fall increasing in the wake of Liberal MP Matthew Groom’s departure.

Mr Groom’s decision leaves a gap on the Liberals’ ticket, which some have suggested could be filled by Hobart Lord Mayor Sue Hickey, who had been considering a run in Franklin.

Political analyst Kevin Bonham has warned that the Liberals will need to find a high-profile candidate to run in Denison alongside Speaker Elise Archer or risk losing their majority.

Alderman Hickey said sitting in State Parliament was something that had interested her “for a long period of time,” but there were other considerations to take into account. She said it would “be a while” before she made a decision.

Suspended Glenorchy alderman Matt Stevenson said he was considering nominating for preselection, which has been reopened by the Liberals.

Previous candidate Robert Mallett declined to comment on whether he was considering a run, while Hobart alderman and 2013 federal candidate Tanya Denison said she had not given the idea much thought.

Marcus Allan, who ran in the seat at last year’s Federal Election, said he had not made a decision either way.

“Sue Hickey would get a really large number of votes I would think, but [Mr Mallett, Ald Denison and Mr Allan] are not ticket toppers,” Dr Bonham said.

Mr Groom was the second-highest polling candidate in Denison at the 2014 election, reaching a quota in his own right with 13,829 first-preference votes.

The Liberals’ second seat in Denison was won by Ms Archer, who achieved 6701 first-preference votes — almost 4000 short of a quota.

Dr Bonham said Denison could be further impacted by the possible candidacy of suspended Glenorchy mayor Kristie Johnston as an independent.

Ms Johnston has not yet decided whether she will run.

“There’s an outside chance that Labor could win three seats which becomes more serious if the Liberals field a weak team,” Dr Bonham said.

“If there is [an independent] running then [the Liberals’] second seat will be the one most likely to fall.”

Mr Groom’s decision likely puts Labor MP Madeleine Ogilvie in a more comfortable position by increasing the possibility the party can win three seats.

Labor has previously announced that high-profile former radio personality Tim Cox would run for the party in Denison alongside Ms Ogilvie and shadow treasurer Scott Bacon.

Dr Bonham said the Greens were likely to retain Cassy O’Connor’s seat in the electorate, but it was not certain.

Tasmanian Liberal Party director Sam McQuestin was contacted for comment.