Dangers lurking in the deep

YEARS ago, I was told that during the Cold War it was not uncommon for Soviet Union and American submarines to cruise by Tasmania.

The warring subs used the route around the island to escape each other’s detection.

For example, while patrolling in the Indian Ocean, rather than risk navigating through more busy thoroughfares, they would drop from sight by heading south and do a loop around Tassie to appear unannounced and unexpected somewhere in the Pacific.

I was told that because both the Soviets and the Americans used this tactical manoeuvre it could lead to the anxious situation where subs from both sides were off Tasmania at the same time.

Having slithered to the same hidey hole, the subs would sink in ravines in the seamounts off Tasmania’s southeast, power down and wait until their opponent was gone and it was safe to come out.

The story goes that at times there were Russian and American subs sitting silently in the seamounts in deadly games of hide and peek.

Imagine the sense of trepidation aboard the vessels. It is the stuff of nightmares for most of us, and probably tested the mettle of the most hardened submariners.

Despite the Cold War officially being over, I suspect the chance of opposing subs lurking in the massive mountains under the waves off Tasmania’s coast is now higher than ever.

The world’s submarine fleet has grown substantially in the past 20 years.

There are now about 400 submarines prowling the oceans.

It is estimated that 230 of those are lurking in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. Of those, about 160 are North Korean, Chinese or Russian. The rest are mainly from the US.

The US Navy this month christened the nuclear-powered USS South Dakota, touted the world’s most advanced fast-attack sub. It cost just shy of $3 billion and will join America’s 70-strong global fleet.

But it is not just Chinese, Russian, US and North Korean subs in our region.

South-East Asian nations have been enthusiastically buying into the submarine strategy.

Japan and South Korea are at the cutting edge of sub warfare and, in the past 10 years, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam have paid billions to join the game.

Myanmar announced this year it wants to join, although analysts doubt it has the funds to enter the once-exclusive club. Bangladesh and Thailand are in the same boat, having expressed the desire to buy subs without the necessary capacity to do so, yet.

The proliferation of subs is part of the unprecedented militarisation of our region.

The Australian Government’s 2016 White Paper on Defence says defence spending in Asia is now larger than Europe, and that in 2014 spending rose 5 per cent, reaching $439 billion, compared to Europe, which grew by 0.6 per cent, reaching $386 billion.

Australia recently committed an added $200 billion to defence acquisitions over the next nine years. The sums are gobsmacking. Traditional regional powers such as China, which recently boasted it had surpassed the US in terms of submarine stealth technology, and Australia, which has earmarked $50 billion on a dozen new subs, are being joined in a spending spree on everything from missiles to warships and fighter jets.

Indonesia and Vietnam have both raised their military spending by more than 60 per cent and seven countries in our region last year ranked in the world’s top-40 arms importers.

The US is easily the world’s largest exporter, accounting for a third of the world’s arms sales, followed by Russia with a quarter. Germany, France, China and the UK are also major players.

They could be joined by a new player if Australian Defence Industry Minister Chris- topher Pyne has his way. Pyne said this year that, rather than remaining merely a customer of the global industry, he wants Australia to leap the counter to become a major exporter on par with France and Germany.

There is clearly a buck to be made. It is a lucrative industry.

But what does the future hold with hundreds of submarines lurking off our shores, some of which are nuclear powered and nuclear armed?

The snake-in-the-grass threat of submarines is the ability to strike unexpectedly without being seen. It is a menacing threat that can deter war.

But what happens when you keep throwing deadly snakes in the grass?

The obvious answer is that someone will get bitten.

And what if the nearly $500 billion spent on arms in Asia each year went to families and communities in our region to make our lives happier?

Well, one unavoidable consequence is that the economies of the US, Russia, China, France and all other nations that profit from the global trade in war are going to take one almighty hit.