History says Weir’s star can triumph
HUMIDOR, who boasts the Winx form line, can give Darren Weir his second win in the $6.2 million Melbourne Cup at Flemington today.
Weir won with $101 bolter Prince Of Penzance two years ago but, with Humidor, he has one of the big-race favourites.
The Melbourne trainer also has Big Duke and Amelie’s Star but Humidor is the stable’s top seed.
“If my three get even luck and turn up on the day, they can run well but I guess Humidor has got the best form line through Winx [second in the Cox Plate],’’ Weir said.
“It will be a hard-run race and I reckon he has enough weight [56kg] though and the trip [3200m] is a little concern.’’
Form expert Gary Crispe said top class horses coming off Group 1 weight-for age form always run well in the Melbourne Cup, which is why he is expecting Humidor to win.
“Before the Cox Plate, no horse has managed to get close to champion mare Winx over 2000m or longer in her 22 unbeaten runs, however for a fleeting moment, Humidor had everyone stunned as he made a charge at the great mare going down by a long neck,’’ Crispe said.
“Now that the dust has settled on the Winx euphoria, the focus can now be on the effort of Humidor and what his prospects look like today.
“He has continued to improve his Timeform ratings profile each preparation, now sitting with a lofty 129 figure after giving Winx the fright of her life.’’
He said the Melbourne Cup over the past 20 years is littered with winners coming off a peak effort the previous run.
“In the same period, the Cox Plate has produced Cup winners in Fiorente (2013), Green Moon (2012), Efficient (2007), Makybe Diva (2005) and Saintly (1996), and recent placegetters in Hartnell, Criterion and So You Think,” Crispe said.
“But I feel the horse that Humidor best replicates today is the Bart Cummings-trained Saintly.
“Both horses have an identical ratings profile going into the Melbourne Cup at their seventh run from a spell and after a peak rating performance in the Cox Plate.
“Saintly ran a Timeform rating of 127 winning the Cox Plate before strolling home in the Cup. He also won at this third run back in that preparation which is what Humidor also did.’’
Saintly was unproven at 3200m before romping away with the Melbourne Cup that year as is Humidor today.
“Humidor is a very classy type who has peaked at the right time,’’ Crispe said.
He said Humidor faced a powerful overseas entry today including Marmelo, Wall Of Fire, Johannes Vermeer and Red Cardinal, plus last year’s Cup winner Almandin.