Capitalise on cool to boost growth
Put planning in place for healthy growth, write Carl Harris and Paul Liggins
TASMANIA has never been cooler. Tourists are flocking here in record numbers, net interstate migration is positive, and our population is growing at its fastest annual rate in six years (0.6 per cent from March 2016 to March 2017). This is only slightly less than the 0.7 per cent average needed to hit the Government’s target of 650,000 people by 2050.
This population increase is not uniform across the state. Reflecting economic circumstances, it is predominantly driven by the South, with population declines in the North-West.
Net interstate migration has been almost consistently positive since 2015 after being negative for almost five years. The size of overseas migration, which is over twice the size of interstate migration, is at a seven-year high. These are a great set of numbers for Tasmania — or are they?
ABS data shows Tasmania’s population is older than the average Australian population and with the largest increase in median age from 2006 and 2016 (from 38.9 to 42 years).
This brings opportunity and challenges. We have seen an increase in the labour force participation rate of older Tasmanians.
Over 50s also spend differently, are wealthy in historic terms, are living longer and will require healthcare.
Some businesses will embrace this and prosper from opportunities in residential aged care, preventable health and wellness, luxury retirement and retirement experiences.
While our population has grown from about 446,000 in 1986 to close to 520,000 now, we have fewer 15 to 34-year - olds than in 1986. Not just a few less, but 22,000 less.
This demographic anomaly is a legacy of the 1990s. Starting in 1991 in Australia’s last recession and ending in 2000, the 15-34 age bracket fell by almost 25,000. Thousands of young people left to seek opportunities elsewhere.
Fewer 15-34s growing older is also why Tasmania’s 35-44 age cohort started to decline in 1998, and is still falling today.
Fewer younger people means not only fewer workers, but fewer people raising new ideas, challenging the norm, taking risks and developing into entrepreneurs.
So decline in these age brackets is of more concern.
There is good news. The 25-34 age bracket has been increasing for 10 years.
Accelerating and capitalising on this trend by attracting younger, skilled migrants can deliver benefits for the economic growth drivers of participation, productivity and population.
We want young families to come to, or back to, Tasmania. We believe Tasmania should aggressively target families in NSW, Victoria and overseas to relocate here.
People from NSW are not only visiting here in droves (up 13 per cent to June 30, 2017), they have an increased willingness to move as evidenced by NSW having negative net interstate migration.
Opportunities also exist with Victorians (442,000 visited Tasmanian to June 30, 2017) as Victoria is becoming overcrowded with its population growing in one week the equivalent of Tasmania’s annual growth.
To attract them we need to address housing challenges, improve education, undertake urban planning and sell the benefits of Tasmania — lifestyle, clean, green and safe. Let’s aggressively target young families who spend their life in traffic and who can’t afford to live near the city.
Let’s be bold with international students and overseas migration. You do not have to look far to hear about international students staying or investing here, or wonderful migrant success stories like Josef Chromy or DeBruyn’s Transport. People
who moved here, worked hard and now employ hundreds of Tasmanians and generate substantial economic activity.
To understand who we should be targeting, we need to consider the future of work and what industries will be the backbone of our economy.
We should target these growth industries — agribusiness, education, tourism, healthcare, professional and IT, renewable energy and creative industries.
We should also target people where we have a skills shortage such as construction workers, nurses and chefs.
When we grow our population we need to ensure our strategy considers how disadvantaged Tasmanians can benefit from the growth, rather than just ending up under more duress, for example, through higher housing or rental costs.
We need to address housing, education and infrastructure to enable Tasmania to be bold and shift the dial on smart migration of working families in Victoria, NSW and overseas in sectors of need and future growth.
Tasmania should aggressively target families in NSW, Victoria and overseas to relocate here.