POKIES MISS JACKPOT
Only 14.3% to base choice on poker machine reform 30% consider health, jobs and the economy more important
POKIES reform is the vote-decider for a mere 14.3 per cent of Tasmanians, an exclusive poll for the Mercury has revealed.
Despite the debate over how best to regulate poker machines after 2023 having dominated the campaign, a poll of more than 3000 Tasmanians shows health policies and the economy will be what determines most votes on Saturday.
POKIES reform has been touted as the biggest issue facing Tasmanians as they head to the polls on Saturday, but exclusive polling indicates it will influence just 14.3 per cent of the statewide vote.
Health (31.9 per cent) and jobs and the economy (30.2) are of greater concern to voters, according to the latest ReachTEL poll of 3179 residents conducted for the Mercury.
But when comparing pokies policies from the two major parties, more than half of voters (57.1 per cent) would go with the Labor Party plan to restrict poker machines to casinos by 2023.
A total 42.9 per cent would support the Liberal Party policy to allow individual venues to operate pokies in pubs and clubs after 2023 if reelected.
And a whopping 70.9 per cent in Denison prefer Labor’s plan — indicating that it could help the Opposition claw back some ground on the Liberal Party.
Polling published by the Mercury on Saturday found Will Hodgman’s Liberals are on track to narrowly win majority government next weekend with 46.4 per cent of the vote to Labor’s 31.1.
Support for poker machine reform is greatest in the electorate of Denison generally with 26.1 per cent of voters keen for action, but it drops off dramatically with just 15.1 per cent in Franklin, 11 per cent in Lyons, 10.4 per cent in Braddon and 9.5 per cent in Bass.
Of that 14.3 per cent, just 3.4 per cent are Liberal voters, 23.8 per cent are Labor voters, 35 per cent are Green aligned and 12 per cent undecided.
More men than women consider pokies an issue, spread evenly across most age groups up to the age of 65.
If Denison was removed from the equation, just 11.5 per cent of the Tasmanian vote would be influenced by pokie reform.
Premier Will Hodgman said he was confident pokies would not be a deal breaker come Saturday.
“I think there are a number of issues that Tasmanians are concerned about,” he said.
“The things that are at the heart of our plan for the state, a strong economy and more jobs, investing into health and education and infrastructure, keeping the cost of living down.
“These are the issues that we have been talking about and I think they are resonating with Tasmanians because I think they are the issues most important for them.”
However, Labor leader Rebecca White says party policy on pokies being the key difference point between them and the Liberals was the key issue of the election. “There is no doubt that our policy of poker machines is vastly different from the Liberal Party. If the people of Tasmania want to get rid of poker machines by 2023 then they have to get rid of Will Hodgman because he is quite simply pushing the industry line here. He is telling lies about the number of jobs that will be affected,” she said. “We took this decision because it was the right decision to take. It was never guided by political short-termism it was decided by evidence and it’s an opportunity right now to do something about the prevalence in our community. “The deed comes up for renewal this year and that’s why it is an election issue because we have an opportunity now to change what is happening in our community.” Greens leader and Denison MP Cassy O’Connor believes pokies will be a vote decider on Saturday. “The poker machine issue will be a vote decider at this election but what’s more likely to be a vote decider will be the corruption of our democracy that is happening right before our very eyes,” she said. “I’ve worked on many state and federal campaigns and I have never seen such a poisonous influence of big business on our democracy.”
The poll indicates that just 2.8 per cent of the Tasmanian vote will be influenced by fish farms. Voters in Lyons (4.2 per cent) and Franklin (4 per cent) are most concerned, particularly those in the 35-50 age group.
While most influenced by pokies reform, Denison voters are least concerned about jobs and the economy, which rates highest for Bass (38 per cent) and Braddon (33.8 per cent).
Braddon cares most strongly about health (35.2 per cent) along with Lyons (36.5 per cent).
Females are focused on health (36.2 per cent) while Tasmania’s male population is about jobs and the economy (33.7 per cent).
Voters over the age of 65 are influenced by health (41.3 per cent) and jobs and the economy (27.1 per cent)
The majority of Labor voters see health as their major influences (38.7 per cent) while Liberal supporters look to jobs and the economy (51.9 per cent). Jacqui Lambie Network followers are influenced by health (20.3 per cent).
When last polled by ReachTEL in July last year, 31.9 per cent of Tasmanians said policy on health would most influence their vote; 30.2 per cent said jobs and the economy. Education was the answer to 9.7 per cent of those polled followed by cost of living on 7.9 per cent.