Denison battle within the battle

IT’S Archer versus Hickey, Madeleine against the world.

Pokies are its biggest issue and exiting MP Matthew Groom’s 14,000 votes are up for grabs.

It’s the battle-within-the battle for Denison, which this week emerged as perhaps the most crucial electorate for tomorrow’s result.

Statewide polls suggest Will Hodgman’s Liberals are on track to win 13 seats, a Lower House majority of just one.

But a ReachTEL poll conducted for the Mercury has thrown that wide open with its finding that poker machine reform is the biggest issue in Denison — and 71 per cent in the electorate support Labor’s policy of restricting them to casinos.

If Labor was to win a third seat in the Hobart-based electorate it could deny the Liberals a majority and force both major parties to reconsider a deal with the Greens.

And if that is not enough, the Hare-Clark system is pitting a Liberal pair with a history against each other — conservative minister Elise Archer and moderate Hobart Lord Mayor Sue Hickey.

“It’s important that you have a range of candidates that do appeal across the board,” Ms Hickey told the Mercury.

“Elise has obviously been a hardworking member of parliament, I think people have seen that.

“Hopefully they will also see that I can make a great contribution from a totally different angle.

“We are slightly different in politics.”

Those differences infamously bubbled to the surface in a heated spat at the Taste festival in 2009, resulting in an apology from Ms Archer.

Both say it’s water under the bridge as they campaign for two Liberal seats in Denison.

“If we end up working sideby-side I’m positive we can work well together,” Ms Hickey said.

“Certainly from my end there’s no hard feelings.”

Ms Archer, who was overlooked in several Cabinet reshuffles before being made a minister last September, declined an interview but said in a statement: “I am confident that we will win two seats in Denison, and each of my fellow candidates would make fantastic representatives of their community in the parliament.”

Meanwhile, Labor rightwinger Madeleine Ogilvie is up against the union muscle that unceremoniously attacked her at the party’s state conference last year.

Ms Ogilvie was threatened with expulsion by the powerful Left faction for her opposition to voluntary euthanasia.

Without union backing she has gone out hard with a highly visible campaign. “I do appeal to the more traditional Labor voter — there are a lot of them,” Ms Ogilvie said.

“But I am a fairly independent person and I do like to do things in a more creative and fun way.

“I’m also a seasoned campaigner so I was always going to go hard.”

Ms Ogilvie said there had been no internal animosity — unlike current leader Rebecca White’s notorious “Polly Waffle” attack on veteran right-winger Michael Polley in Lyons during the 2010 campaign.

“We’re all sort of very polite to each other,” she said.

“At the end of the day we are dealing with Hare-Clark, it’s a competition, so we compete.”

All three candidates would appear to be in the market for some of popular Liberal moderate Mr Groom’s 13,829 first preference votes — more than a quota — at the 2014 poll.

ReachTEL gives the ALP more than two quotas in Denison at 42.7 per cent, the Liberals slightly less than two at 32.8 and ensures Greens Leader Cassy O’Connor a seat with 18.6.

Ms Archer pulled 6701 votes at the last election while Ms Hickey, who was not a candidate, is confident she can scoop up a chunk of the moderate vote.

“I’m hoping I will appeal to Matthew’s supporters,” Ms Hickey said.

“I’m certainly what I would call a small-l liberal with progressive views.”

Ms Ogilvie polled 2156 votes, behind Labor frontrunner Scott Bacon’s 14,469, and is hoping her appeal can cross party lines.

“I like to think that on the Labor side the Ogilvie name has a similar sort of resonance,” she said.

“I would say to all the Groom voters it’s safe to vote Maddy. I’ll make sure I’m at the table for you.”