Greens in trouble as count resumes
THE Greens are looking likely to have lost MP Andrea Dawkins — and latest counting has also raised fresh doubts about the future of Rosalie Woodruff.
Political analysts Kevin Bonham and Richard Herr agreed yesterday’s preference flows suggested Labor was on track to take Ms Dawkins’ seat from the Greens in Bass.
In Franklin, they said the future of Dr Woodruff would come down to the preference flows from excluded Labor candidates and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate.
If the Greens lost Ms Dawkins and Dr Woodruff, Denison MP Cassy O’Connor would become the party’s sole representative in Parliament.
After the initial first-preference count on election night, counting stopped to allow the final postal votes to arrive and the quotas to be set.
Yesterday’s count resumption also produced a surprise in Denison, with Labor MP Madeleine Ogilvie improving her position against fellow Labor candidate Ella Haddad. Final results are expected by Friday.
THE Greens have improved their chances of holding on to a seat in Franklin but fell further behind in Bass yesterday as preferences began being distributed after last week’s state election.
Yesterday’s counting was also positive for Denison Labor MP Madeleine Ogilvie, who improved her position slightly after looking like losing her seat to fellow Labor candidate Ella Haddad on election night.
However, despite making up ground, Ms Ogilvie remains behind Ms Haddad and the final result will depend on where preferences from other Labor candidates end up.
After the initial first-preference count on election night, counting stopped for 10 days while the final postal votes trickled in.
The formal Hare Clark counting process has begun and Electoral Commissioner Andrew Hawkey expects all of the successful candidates to be confirmed by the end of the week.
“Final results are expected by Thursday — it could run into Friday,” he said.
Political analyst Kevin Bonham said the final seat in Franklin remained too close to call, with the battle being fought between two sitting MPs — Greens MP Rosalie Woodruff and Liberal MP Nic Street. Both were elected to the last parliament on recounts and Dr Bonham said the two were fairly even on paper.
Political analyst Richard Herr agreed the two were evenly placed, with Dr Woodruff claiming back ground yesterday after being slightly behind the Liberals on election night.
Dr Herr said the final result would depend on the flow of preferences from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Brendon Hext and excluded Labor candidates.
He said the outcome was the key to determining whether the Liberal Government would have a 13-seat or 14-seat majority, which would have implications for the speakership.
Dr Herr said Greens MP Andrea Dawkins had lost ground in Bass and Labor’s position had improved.
Dr Bonham also said he believed Labor had firmed up in Bass ahead of the Greens in the fight for the final seat.
Braddon Liberal MPs Joan Rylah and Roger Jaensch are fighting it out over the third Liberal seat in the North-West, while in Lyons it remains unclear whether Labor’s Jen Butler or Janet Lambert will get over the line.