Lib holds lead in race for Prosser
COUNTING will restart today to determine the winner of the Legislative Council seat of Prosser, more than a week after the election was held.
The Tasmanian Electoral Commission was forced to put counting on hold after the lection on May 6 because of the small number of votes separating seven candidates in the 13-strong field.
Election night revealed a three-horse race for the seat between Liberal candidate Jane Howlett, who received 26.14 per cent of primary votes, Labor’s Janet Lambert on 21.92 per cent of the votes and independent candidate Steve Mav on 19.69 per cent.
Political analyst Kevin Bonham said the unprecedented nature of a three-way battle between the two major parties and an independent for a Tasmanian Upper House seat made it difficult to predict an outcome.
However, Dr Bonham said Ms Howlett’s lead on the other two candidates was likely to be more significant than it appeared, thanks to the likely exhaust rate.
Voters are required to number only three boxes for their vote to count in Legislative Council elections, and Dr Bonham said the large field meant there would be a high rate of vote exhaustion.
He said Ms Lambert was in a difficult position to win, but if she did it would be a “disaster” for the State Government.
“It’s hard to see any reason why the preferences . . . should flow to [ Ms] Lambert strongly enough to get her over the line,” Dr Bonham said.
He said Mr Mav may be in a better position to receive preferences, with voters who choose independent candidates tending to preference other independents.
He said if Mr Mav did manage to catch Ms Howlett, the State Government would likely be able to work with him – most of the time.
“He’s going to be very unpredictable and I’d expect there would be a lot of headline-seeking behaviour,” Dr Bonham said.
The deadline for postal votes is 10am today, with the distribution of preferences to begin shortly after.
The Tasmanian Electoral Commission hopes to have a result by the end of the day.