Running out of easy options for billions of mouths to feed

EXPERTS have agreed that by the year 2050 there will be about nine billion people in the world. Scientists are seriously discussing whether we will have enough food to support all these mouths.

The world hit peak production of wheat in 2004, peak eggs in 1993 and peak dairy in 1989 which has led some experts to the worrisome conclusion that we could be running out of food.

A study in Ecology and Society looked at how the production of 27 renewable and non-renewable resources changed in the past half century. Over a dozen of the resources were food-related, and all of those, with the exception of farmed fish, had already peaked. “Peak” here means when yield gains stop accelerating. The world production of say, soybeans, may continue to grow, but the rate of growth has slowed.

What these numbers mean is that we have exhausted all the easy solutions for growing more food. We have farmed the fertile lands, we have created powerful fertilisers and pesticides, we have made genetically modified crops. What’s next?

“Constraints on production may not be alleviated unless there is disruptive innovation,” they write. That “disruptive innovation” would most likely be in the form of new crops. Scientists are already trying to domesticate new crops like the potato bean and Kernza (wheat grass) that can thrive in our hotter and drier future world.

However, many scientists believe the genetic gain that has been achieved for major crops is half due to improved breeding methods and half due to improved agronomic practices. In the developing world, it is clear there are still huge gains that can be achieved through agronomy, the science of crop production.

Seventy per cent of the hungry live in rural areas and rely primarily on agriculture for their livelihoods. The United Nations argues that the best investments in agriculture are in these smallscale farming areas, where the “yield gaps” are the largest and where hunger is the most prevalent.

Ultimately, then, farmers in less developed economies not only need to generate enough to feed their family, but also to earn a bit more, so they can actually rise above mere subsistence. That gives them some money that they can spend on their children’s education or various other things — which is where we see vast improvements in development.

There is clear data to show the hungry are not hungry because the world lacks food. Research indicates that we grow enough food right now to feed about 10 billion people.

Yet around 1 billion of today’s 7.6 billion people are chronically undernourished. Furthermore, well over 1 billion suffer from significant

malnutrition — in a world of plenty.

They are hungry because they are poor, and they are poor because they are (by and large) small-scale farmers without enough land, credit, extension services or investment; or they are underemployed with incomes too low to support their families. Increasing the global supply of agricultural commodities might bring food prices down for a while, but it won’t feed the hungry.

If we’re going to achieve the goal of zero hunger, we have to change course in developed economies, too.

We need to stop diverting so much of our food and feed to biofuel production. Biofuels are mainly made from wheat, corn, sorghum, soy and sugar cane. The International Energy Agency says demand for crop-based biofuels will grow 150 per cent by 2035 if policies in developed countries continue. Scaling back government consumption mandates, such as the US Renewable Fuel Standard alone, would do far more to keep food prices in check than investing in expanded agricultural commodity production.

With reliable estimates showing we squander onethird of all food grown in the world today, we must also work to reduce food waste and spoilage.

In countries like Australia, most of that waste is at the retail and consumer levels. In developing countries, it comes from poor storage, transportation and infrastructure — the very things that should be the focus of public investment.

There are clear solutions if we increase the availability of land and food by reducing biofuel production, get more of the food we grow to the dinner table by reducing food waste, and invest more in the world’s small-scale and family farmers.

It is time to stop fearmongering about the future. We can feed the world’s growing population if we first focus on fixing the problems in the present.