Keay facing uphill battle in Braddon, poll shows

LABOR candidate Justine Keay is trailing her Liberal rival Brett Whiteley by almost seven percentage points and will struggle to prevail in the by-election battle for northwestern Tasmanian seat of Braddon, a new poll shows.

But no party commands a majority and the final result will be determined by the pref- erences of minor party candidates, according to a ReachTel poll commissioned by think tank The Australia Institute.

The telephone poll of 700 voters showed Mr Whiteley enjoying the support of 42.9 per cent of those polled, ahead of Ms Keay on 36.3 per cent.

Independent Craig Garland recorded 8 per cent support and Green Jarrod Evans 4.4 per cent. Just over 6 per cent of the electorate remains undecided.

Ms Keay, who was forced to resign from Parliament after being found to be a dual citizen, increased her support by 3.6 percentage points from 33 per cent in a previous SkyReachTel poll and Mr Whiteley fell 4.1 points from what would have been a certain winning position of 47 per cent.

In the last five federal elec- tions in Braddon, the victorious candidate secured at least 40 per cent of the primary vote and Ms Keay will need to secure the preferences of twothirds of minor party voters in order to return to Canberra.

The fickle electorate has changed hands in four of the five elections since 2004.

At the 2016 federal election, at which Ms Keay was elected, she won 40.05 per cent of the primary votes, and Mr Whiteley 41.5 per cent.

The Greens and the Australian Recreational Fishers Party each took around 6 per cent of the vote at that election, most of which flowed to Labor.

Mr Keay secured 52.2 per cent of the vote after the distribution of preferences.

Political analyst Kevin Bonham said on Twitter his estimate of the two-party preferred result would be 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent in favour of the Liberal candidate.

Mr Whiteley said: “I don’t commentate on polls, other than to say I am the only candidate with a plan for Braddon, and who can deliver.”

Ms Keay acknowledged the outcome would be close: “It has been [a marginal seat] for decades and every election here is a very hard-fought contest.”