BRADDON NAILBITER

POLL HAS LIBERAL, LABOR NECK-AND-NECK

NEW POLLING shows Labor and the Liberals are locked 50-50 for the two-party preferred vote in Braddon.

A YouGov Galaxy poll, conducted exclusively for News Corp, shows that preferences from the six other candidates, including independent Craig Garland will determine the result.

The poll shows Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley with a primary vote of 44 per cent against Labor candidate Justine Keay’s 40 per cent.

But preferences from Mr Garland (7 per cent) and Jarrod Edwards (4 per cent) are expected to flow to Labor resulting in the 50:50 split in two-party preferred terms.

THE Braddon by-election is set for a cliffhanger with new polling showing Labor and Liberal candidates locked at 50-50 after the distribution of preferences.

The YouGov Galaxy poll, conducted exclusively for News Corp metropolitan daily newspapers, showed preferences from the six other candidates, including independent Craig Garland and the Greens’ Jarrod Edwards, would determine the result.

The poll of 504 people showed Liberal candidate Brett Whiteley with a primary vote of 44 per cent compared with Labor candidate Justine Keay’s 40 per cent.

But preferences from Messrs Garland (7 per cent) and Edwards (4 per cent) are expected to flow to Labor resulting in the 50:50 split in two party preferred terms.

In 2016, Ms Keay won the head-to-head battle with Mr Whiteley by nearly 3000 votes after the distribution of preferences despite polling 1000 fewer primary votes.

She received a 63 per cent preference flow from the Australian Recreational Fisher’s party candidate Glen Saltmarsh and 86 per cent from Greens’ Scott Jordan to win with 52.2 per cent compared to Mr Whiteley’s 47.8 per cent.

The YouGov Galaxy poll shows increased danger for Bill Shorten’s leadership should Labor lose either of the Braddon or Longman (Queensland) polls.

It shows that if Anthony Albanese was the leader Ms Keay would clearly win with a 53:47 two-party preferred result.

Similarly in Longman, Susan Lamb would be propelled to a 53:47 result over LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg if Mr Albanese was the leader.

YouGov Galaxy found that despite being disqualified as a dual citizen 49 per cent of respondents were satisfied with Ms Keay’s performance as the member compared with 38 per cent dissatisfied. On Friday, a ReachTEL poll indicated Ms Keay was ahead 52:48.

The Braddon electorate has swapped between parties five times since 1998.

The polls come just four months after the Liberals attracted 56 per cent of the vote in the March 3 state election.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Tasmanian Liberal Senator Eric Abetz played down hopes of a Liberal win in Braddon yesterday.

Mr Turnbull said at the weekend that the by-elections would be very close.

“Labor should be streets ahead because historically byelections have swung away from Governments,” he said.

Opposition Employment spokesman Brendan O’ Connor said the by elections would be a very tough tussle.

“It always has been because in particular in Tasmania and Queensland they are very, very marginal seats and in Queensland, in Longman, we’ve rarely held that seat,” he said.

Senator Abetz said the party was in no doubt about how difficult it was to win a byelection from an Opposition.

“History tells us that the average swing against a Government is five per cent so we are up against it,” he said.

“If we do happen to pick up one of those seats, it will be a history-making occasion where 98 years of political history will be broken.”

Mr Whiteley, a member of the Liberals’ Three Amigos in the Abbott government, said he would visit the seven local government areas in Braddon in the final week. “I will travel the length and breadth of the electorate, covering all seven local government areas on the north west and west coasts, starting in Latrobe today,” Mr Whiteley said.

Labor has tackled the recreational fishing issue announcing plans to permanently ban supertrawlers, a research grant of $750,000 for research into the health of Tasmania’s oceans, a $10 million Supporting Recreational Fishing Fund if elected next year.

Mr Whiteley said he had never supported the supertrawler.

“These are issues of importance but I think they are peripheral to what is really at stake in Braddon and that is “where are the jobs coming from”,” he said.

Ms Keay said 7277 workers in the electorate would be affected by cuts to penalty rates.

Mr Whiteley said he was not concerned about the ReachTEL poll.

“It doesn’t concern me what the poll says this wee. It concerns me how people vote next Saturday,” he said.