Housing, tourism put Tasmania top

THE Tasmanian economy is the leading the rest of Australia chiefly because it has not experienced a housing slowdown like other states.

The ANZ quarterly stateometer report, due out today, says Tasmania is thriving while the four largest states slip below their trend growth rates.

“Every state except Tasmania experienced a drag from their housing sector in the June quarter,” ANZ senior economist Cherelle Murphy said.

A inflow of interstate migrants attracted by relatively good housing affordability contributed to the strong market in which Hobart house prices had risen by 2.1 per cent in the June quarter.

“Hobart’s affordability will diminish as the gap between it and other capitals’ housing and rental prices narrow,” she said.

The ANZ Stateometer predicted that Tasmania’s unemployment rate, presently 6.2 per cent, would fall to 5.3 per cent by June next year, the lowest rate since August 2011.

“We expect Gross State Product to have risen by an above-average 3.5 per cent in 2017-18 and to maintain reasonable growth of 2.8 per cent in 2018-19,” Ms Murphy said.

“A slight slowdown to 2.5 per cent is expected in 2019-20.

“The growth driver for the economy was the 18.4 per cent rise in tourist arrivals in the year to June.

“The falling Australian dollar will provide additional support to the tourism sector.”

The state had benefited from good demand from China for non-ferrous metals, seafood and metal ores.

Ms Murphy said economic conditions had eased in the June quarter compared to the previous three months, but were more robust than the rest of Australia.

Labor market conditions, while off their highs were still above their long term average.