Burnie to lead Tassie towns in population decline

BURNIE is set to lose more people over the next 25 years than any other local government area in Tasmania.

A new report says the North-West city’s population is predicted to shrink by more than 2300 to just 16,880.

Burnie was declared a city in 1988 but has been losing people ever since.

And the nearby West Coast, which already has a very low population of just over 4000 residents, is predicted to lose another 1200 by 2042 and be the fastest-declining area in Tasmania in percentage terms.

The report, Regional population trends in Tasmania: Issues and options, by demographer and UTAS Research Fellow Lisa Denny and researcher Nyree Pisanu, provides a demographic profile for each of the state’s 29 local government areas.

Across the state, 15 councils are projected to decline with many to experience hyper-ageing, where more than 20 per cent of the population is aged over 65. However, Burnie is not one of them as its population is to shrink as residents leave for opportunities elsewhere.

Among those to feel hyperageing pressure are Dorset in the state’s North-East, Waratah-Wynyard in the NorthWest, Central Highlands, and Break O’ Day, Flinders, Glamorgan-Spring Bay and Tasman in the East.

The report says hyper-ageing is caused by an area losing younger people and gaining older people.

“While population ageing and eventual decline is an unprecedented phenomenon, it is occurring on a global scale, as such, the experience is not unique to Tasmania,” it says.

Dr Denny said policies attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic headwinds.

“One specific risk is that regions will compete to retain or attract people to the detriment of other regions and the state as a whole,” she said.